Lisbon had considered the Rafale, Typhoon, and the Saab JAS Gripen E as a replacement for the F-16. Now, Portugal could look to the future beyond the F-35.
Europe’s two competing sixth-generation jet fighter programs could soon get support from another member. The German-French-Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS) program already has Belgium looking to increase its role from observer to partner. Portugal is now expressing interest in joining the project as an observer.
However, Lisbon has also indicated that if that is not an option, it could join the competing Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), the UK-led effort with Italy and Japan.
The former program seeks to develop a replacement for the Eurofighter Typhoon and the Dassault Rafale, while the latter is meant to replace the Typhoon and Mitsubishi F-2. The GCAP merged the BAE Systems Tempest with the Mitsubishi F-X.
Why Doesn’t Portugal Want to Buy F-35s from America?
This spring, there were multiple reports of NATO members having cold feet over the adoption of the fifth-generation Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II—most notably because of its costs, which have risen due to tariffs that could result in a trade war with the United States. Moreover, despite Lockheed Martin’s suggestion that a more advanced version could be produced incorporating sixth-generation technology, President Donald Trump has implied that such a fighter might not be offered to allies.
The US president has also suggested that US allies could get a less capable Boeing F-47. This sixth-generation fighter is the centerpiece of the US Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program.
In March, Portugal’s Defense Minister Nuno Melo expressed concern about adopting the F-35, which had been selected to replace the NATO nation’s fleet of F-16 AM/BM fighters, as part of its Força Aérea 5.3 Airpower Transformation Plan 2024–2030.
“We cannot ignore the geopolitical environment in our choices. The recent position of the United States, in the context of NATO … must make us think about the best options, because the predictability of our allies is a greater asset to take into account,” Melo told the Portuguese-based Público.
Lisbon had considered the Rafale, Typhoon, and the Saab JAS Gripen E as a replacement for the F-16. Now, Portugal could look to the future beyond the F-35.
Which Fighter Jet Program Will Portugal Select?
Melo told reporters in July that Lisbon was interested in joining either the FCAS (also known as the Système de Combat Aérien du Futur (SCAF)) or the GCAP, but did not indicate which, if either, is more likely. No further details have been provided.
However, there has been far greater turbulence with the FCAS/SCAF due to a plethora of issues, including the sharing of technology and how the workload would be distributed. That has led to reports in late 2023 that Germany was considering pulling out of the FCAS to join the GCAP, but there has been speculation that Berlin was engaged in a negotiating tactic. It is unlikely Germany would have the same level of membership in the GCAP that it maintains within the FCAS.
Dassault executives have also been critical of Belgium’s interest in seeking a greater role in the program while still adopting the F-35 Lightning II from the United States. The next batch of Belgian fifth-generation fighters will be produced in Italy, but the rift is enough to indicate a lack of cohesion among the partners.
The bigger question may be what Portugal brings to the table. Lisbon does not have a significant aerospace and defense sector. In addition, Portugal only spent 1.58 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), roughly $4.6 billion, on defense in 2024. In June, Lisbon announced it would aim to meet two percent of GDP spending on defense in 2025, and would seek to hit the five percent threshold in the coming years. Some of that money could be directed towards one of the sixth-generation fighter programs.
About the Author: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu has contributed over 3,200 published pieces to more than four dozen magazines and websites over a thirty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].
Image: Shutterstock / Francisco_Goncalves.
