Ukraine’s oil attacks on Russia have done little to curb Russian oil production and export. Paradoxically, they may have even helped the Kremlin benefit from higher prices.
In the darkness of the early hours of November 29, unmanned naval drones—believed to be from Ukraine—pierced one of Russia’s most vital economic arteries. Multiple reports confirm that sea drones slammed into a major oil terminal operated by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) near the port of Novorossiysk, Russia’s Black Sea gateway to global energy markets.
The strike disabled one of the facility’s single-point moorings, forcing an immediate halt to all loading operations and triggering a temporary suspension of exports.
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This attack was astonishing in its scope; the naval drones targeted a massive oil terminal that accounts for roughly 1 percent of all oil traffic.
The Attack May Have Had the Opposite of Its Intended Effect
Clearly, the attackers were trying to debilitate Russia’s war machine by seriously damaging the country’s ability to produce and move oil and natural gas from its territory for sale to lands near and far. Yet the attack is unlikely to have achieved that goal, at least not in the short run.
The CPC node near Novorossiysk handles a substantial portion of the oil flowing from Kazakhstan and southern Russia to the wider world. In that sense, this was not just an attack on the Russians, but on the entire global energy market. When 1 percent of the world’s oil supply goes offline—or even appears threatened—markets respond violently. Prices spike on global consumers of this essential commodity. Meanwhile, energy producing nations, including Russia, enjoy windfalls as the price of their primary export commodity increases drastically in an environment where demand is always increasing.
Kyiv’s forces conducted repeated attacks against Russian oil assets throughout the war—notably on Russian “shadow fleet” tankers, the illicit fleet that Moscow uses to skirt sanctions and quietly shuttle oil to global buyers. The Novorossiysk attack also factors into Ukraine’s wider strategy of scaling their attacks against Russia by targeting Russian energy production as part of a larger bid to weaken the support struts for Russia’s war machine. Because Russia is a major energy producer, Moscow has been able to avoid the most damaging aspects of Western sanctions. Everyone wants cheap, abundant oil and natural gas. Russia is more than happy to sell theirs to whoever wants it, even the nations it characterizes as “unfriendly,” and to use the profits from those sales to fund its ongoing war and sustain its economy under the strain of international sanctions.
Ukraine Is Missing the Mark (Again)
The situation on the front in Ukraine is now detrimental to Ukraine’s Armed Forces, who are on the retreat. Kyiv is clearly looking for exploits elsewhere—hence its desire to attack Russian energy sources.
This isn’t the first time pro-NATO elements have targeted Russian energy sources in a bid to weaken Russia’s war machine. In 2023, the Nord Stream II (NS2) pipeline linking cheap, plentiful Russian natural gas to Europe via Germany was destroyed. Many speculated that the destruction of that pipeline was meant to upend the Russian energy economy. It largely failed in that goal. In fact, the pipeline’s destruction weakened Europe, specifically Germany, by removing access to Russia’s affordable energy supplies. Russia’s wartime economy continued on, and even strengthened in some cases, while energy prices in Europe reached historic highs.
The attack on Novorossiysk is unlikely to have a lasting effect, either. Just a few days after Ukraine knocked out SPM-2, Chevron reports that the Russians have successfully shifted production over to SPM-1. Per Reuters, “Usually, two moorings are engaged in loadings, while one is used as a backup. SPM-3 has been idle under repair since November 12.”
Ukraine Has Successfully Raised the Cost of Energy for Everyone
So, the attackers were successful in damaging SPM-2 at a time when SPM-3 was under repairs. Yet the goal of stopping at least one percent of all oil traffic failed. The Russians managed to restart their operations within a few days of the attack. While the Russians have had to halve output at the Novorossiysk node, and they have only 2.5 days of output in storage, the fact remains that all the Ukrainian strikes have done is drive up the cost of energy for everyone.
During all this, the Russian war machine appears unaffected. It was a desperate attack by pro-Ukrainian elements to give the Ukrainians a strategic reprieve. It didn’t work. This is yet another reminder of how important it is that the world gets a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia sooner rather than later.
Otherwise, the irresponsible and destabilizing actions—born out of desperation—undertaken by the Ukrainians will have lasting consequences for the global economy.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. Weichert hosts a companion book talk series on Rumble entitled “National Security Talk.” He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, and the Asia Times. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Mike Seaman.
