If there was ever a time to kill this zombie plane, it would be now, before the Navy invests too much money in the program and the sunk-cost mentality takes hold.
As delusions of sixth-generation warplanes dotting the skies, overwhelming the various enemies of America fill the minds of Pentagon acquisitions officers, the United States Navy is desperately trying to get into the action.
The US Air Force has already gotten the Trump administration to authorize their creation of the fantastically expensive sixth-generation aircraft to be known as the F-47. But there seems to be some reticence on the part of Washington to sign for the hefty price tag that the Navy’s proposed F/A-XX sixth-generation warplane will cost.
The Navy Doesn’t Want the Air Force to Have All the Fun
Not to be left behind, the Navy has released the concept art for the F/A-XX that is, for all intents and purposes, in what Hollywood types might refer to as “Development Hell.” Of course, many elected in Congress giddily support the F/A-XX program for one reason or another, and recently put in a $1.4 billion request to continue developing the plane.
The program is notably expected to be the most expensive air platform that the Navy has ever built. It will cost at least hundreds of billions to keep this program going—and, if recent precedents like the F-35 are any indicator, the cost is far more likely to be in the trillions. If there was ever a time to kill this zombie plane, it would be now, before the Navy invests too much money in the program and the sunk-cost mentality takes hold.
The bean counters at the Pentagon insist that they cannot glean exact numbers for what the F/A-XX’s final price tag will be due to the complexity of the project. Some extrapolations can be made, though, based on current programs and how previous fifth-generation development projects changed over time.
Some Ballpark Estimates on Sixth-Generation Warplanes’ Cost
The proposed F-47 sixth-generation warplane is expected to cost around $325 million per plane. The Air Force desires to have a minimum of 185 of these F-47 warplanes in their fleet. Meanwhile, the B-21 Raider, the replacement for the B-2 Spirit long-range stealth bomber, is projected to cost an astonishing $692 million per plane. And the Air Force wants at least 100 units of the B-21!
In every case, whether it be the F-35 Lightning II or the B-21 Raider or the F-47, these systems run over their allotted budgets, underperform in combat, and are so expensive and complex that there are never enough units available to be of any real use. Considering this: after 22 years and $1.7 trillion invested, the vaunted F-35 has failed to meet its combat readiness goals for more than six years in a row. According to the Project on Government Waste, “The F-35 program has a fleet-wide full mission capable rate of only 30 percent.”
Barring divine intervention, the F/A-XX will experience similar high prices, readiness issues, and development complications. Eventually, these will in turn lead to numerical disadvantages, as taxpayer frustration leads to cuts in order sizes. This is simply no way to run a modern military in an increasingly contested global environment.
The Navy Should Take a Second Look at the Ford-Class Carrier, Too
In an interesting twist, one report suggests that if the Navy doesn’t get the F/A-XX, its absence will render the equally overhyped and overpriced new Ford-class nuclear-powered carriers “strategically irrelevant”—as if they hadn’t already been made irrelevant by the advent of robust, complex networks of A2/AD systems.
At a whopping $13 billion per ship, the Ford-class carrier is unaffordable. Add in the Navy’s typical obscene developmental delays of these ships, they should have been scrapped long ago. The fact that they weren’t illustrates how badly Washington works. America’s debt is the highest of any nation in all recorded history. This is a direct national security threat.
But the Pentagon keeps spending more money. The F/A-XX and the Ford-class carrier should both be scrapped before it is too late.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
