Through mass attacks on Ukrainian power plants, Russia is hoping to expose the country to the harsh winter—breaking its morale and prompting generous peace terms.
On the night of November 8, Russian forces in Ukraine launched a significant wave of attacks against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. The Kremlin launched 458 drones and 45 missiles, according to The Kyiv Independent. It has been dubbed as “one of the largest direct ballistic missile attacks on energy facilities” since the war began.
Hitting Ukraine across multiple regions, including Kyiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, along with regions such as Odesa Oblast and even parts of the Donetsk Oblast, these attacks had serious consequences. Ukrainian authorities indicated that generation capacity had been reduced to “zero” in some cases, triggering country-wide rolling blackouts of up to 12 to 16 hours in many regions.
Thermal power plants were hit, major substations were damaged, and critical water and heat supply systems were disrupted. One example is a thermal plant belonging to Ukrainian private company DTEK was seriously damaged during the attack. Fears abound among the Ukrainian side, too, that even the nuclear power plant at Zaporizhia will come under attack.
Indeed, some nuclear power plants in Ukraine have reduced output as a precaution after connections to the grid were damaged, raising concerns about stability of systems meant to ensure safety and external power.
Meanwhile, Odesa region is reporting significant energy and transportation infrastructure damage, with emergency power being used for critical service, per Reuters.
Russia Is Trying to Freeze Ukraine Into Surrendering
With much of the power generation disabled by the Russian strikes, many regions endured long power cuts—as long as 16 hours a day.
Ukraine, like Russia, is known for its intense, frigid winter season, which is now setting in. Any significant loss of electricity and, therefore, heating infrastructure, is highly dangerous. The Moscow Times reports that if two major heating plants go offline for more than three days when temperatures are well below zero, Kyiv could face a “technological disaster.”
Beyond the power cuts, water, heating, and transportation—specifically railway services—have suffered serious delays or outright shutdowns. These attacks further undermine the civilian morale in Ukraine and disrupt war-effort logistics, since energy is key for both civilian life and military production.
This is clearly a Russian winter wartime strategy directed against Ukraine. As temperatures drop, there is damage to energy and heating infrastructure increases civilian vulnerability and the cost of recovery. With these factors now in play, it is obvious that Moscow hopes to break Ukrainian morale and pressure Kyiv into surrendering.
The fact that Ukraine’s generation capacity was reported as being at “zero” shows how strained and stretched the system has become in Ukraine. For the allies in the West, this underscores the need for rapid support in grid resilience, spare parts, generation backup, and air defense. Ukraine’s leadership has been requesting more air defense systems from NATO, to no avail.
Much will depend on how quickly the country can restore generation capacity and rebuild damaged plants, with lengthy repairs magnifying risks into the winter months. If cold weather arrives and large swaths of the country lack electricity and heat, civilian casualties and displacement will increase.
Russia’s Effort to Destroy Ukraine’s Power Grid Is Working
Ultimately, it is yet another sobering reminder that, for all the ra-ra about Ukraine’s chances in warfare against Russia, the reality is much different. Russia has total control over the battlespace. There will be no victory for Ukraine and its NATO partners in this war.
But that’s not all. NATO has so thoroughly overcommitted itself to supporting Ukraine that its most sensitive military gear has been drained. It has never helped Ukraine to win the war.
Now the conflict is entering its final, most terrible phase, where the objective becomes to purposely destroy and kill civilian targets.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, and the Asia Times. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / rospoint.
