On a global scale, the KAAN program challenges Western dominance in fighter jet technology—aligning with multipolar trends where middle powers assert their independence from the larger states.
In a landmark development for Middle Eastern defense cooperation, Egypt has officially joined Turkey’s KAAN fifth-generation fighter jet program. This move signifies a deepening strategic partnership between Cairo and Ankara, two regional powerhouses that have historically navigated complex relations. The KAAN, formerly known as TF-X, represents Turkey’s ambitious bid to develop an indigenous stealth fighter rivaling global leaders, such as the US F-35 Lightning II (a program that Turkey had been cut out from in 2019) and China’s Chengdu J-20 “Mighty Dragon.”
With Egypt’s entry into the KAAN program, it gains a key Arab partner, potentially reshaping air power dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
The Background of the TAI TF KAAN Program
Turkey’s KAAN program, led by Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), aims to produce a twin-engine, all-weather fifth-generation fighter jet equipped with advanced stealth capabilities, supercruise, sensor fusion, and network-centric features.
Initiated in 2010, the project accelerated only after the United States excluded Turkey from their F-35 program in retaliation for Ankara’s purchase of Russian-made S-400 air defense missiles. The KAAN made its maiden flight in 2023, with full operational capability targeted for later in the decade.
Indonesia has been an early partner in the KAAN program, but Egypt’s involvement marks a significant expansion, involving technology sharing, joint production, and potential co-funding. Reports indicate Egypt inspected KAAN prototypes and formalized its participation by mid-2025, with agreements expected to be signed later in the year. This partnership underscores Turkey’s strategy to build an independent defense industry while attracting international collaborators to offset development costs, estimated to be over $10 billion.
Why are Egypt and Turkey Getting Together Now?
Egypt’s decision to join the KAAN fifth-generation fighter jet program stems from a mix of military, economic, and diplomatic imperatives.
Militarily, Cairo seeks to modernize its air force amid escalating regional tensions—including instability in Libya, Sudan, and the Sinai Peninsula. Egypt’s current fleet includes US-made F-16s, French Rafales, and Russian MiG-29s, but reliance on these suppliers has proven limiting. In particular, US arms sales often come with political strings connected to Egypt’s human rights record—a caveat that has frustrated the military junta led by Abdel Fattah el-Sisi—while Russian deals face increasing sanctions risks since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
By partnering with Turkey, Cairo diversifies its sources, gaining access to cutting-edge stealth technology without Western oversight. This aligns with Sisi’s push for self-reliance in defense manufacturing, potentially allowing local production of KAAN components and reducing import dependencies.
Economically, the program offers mutual benefits. Egypt, with its large defense budget and industrial base, can contribute to research and development, as well as manufacturing, thereby creating jobs and boosting its aerospace sector. Turkey, in turn, gains a stable funding partner and export market. Egypt may procure dozens of KAAN warplanes to replace aging aircraft over time.
Diplomatically, this collaboration builds on the normalization of Egypt-Turkey ties since 2021, following years of tension over issues, such as tensions around the Muslim Brotherhood, and the two sides’ support of opposite sides in the Libyan conflict. Improved ties, including ambassador exchanges and trade agreements, have paved the way for these new defense pacts. Joining KAAN signals Egypt’s pivot toward non-aligned partnerships, enhancing its strategic autonomy in an increasingly multipolar world. Meanwhile, for Turkey, the deal expands influence in the Arab world, positioning Ankara as a key defense exporter.
The Egypt-Turkey KAAN partnership is poised to significantly alter MENA’s geopolitical landscape, fostering new alliances while challenging established power structures. This new relationship strengthens the emerging Turkey-Egypt axis, potentially counterbalancing Gulf monarchies like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which have invested heavily in US and European arms.
Egypt’s enhanced air capabilities could tip the scales in regional conflicts, such as the ongoing Libyan proxy war, where both nations have opposing interests. But, as their relationship grows, the interests of both countries will converge over time. In fact, this newfound Egypt-Turkey cooperation might also extend to joint naval and intelligence operations in the Eastern Mediterranean, amid gas disputes involving Greece and Cyprus.
How the Egypt-Turkey KAAN Deal Affects the Middle East
A key potential spoiler in the deal is Israel, which presently enjoys air superiority across the Middle East due to its F-35I fleet. Egypt’s acquisition of the KAAN could narrow this gap, prompting Jerusalem to reassess its security posture and possibly accelerate its own indigenous defense production programs. While the 1979 peace treaty between Israel and Egypt still holds, KAAN’s stealth features may embolden Egypt in Sinai operations or Gaza-related tensions. Broader implications include straining US influence. As a NATO ally, Turkey’s KAAN rivals the F-35, and Egypt’s involvement could encourage other nations, like Pakistan or Azerbaijan to join, diluting Washington’s arms monopoly.
In the Gulf, the deal may heighten existing rivalries. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, each with F-35 ambitions of their own, might view the KAAN bloc as a threat, accelerating their own diversification toward Chinese or Russian systems. On the other hand, the deal might promote de-escalation through deterrence, as balanced capabilities reduce the incentive for aggression.
On a global scale, the program challenges Western dominance in fighter jet technology—aligning with multipolar trends where middle powers, like Turkey and Egypt, assert their independence from the larger states (such as the US, Russia, or China). By 2030, Egypt could have a fleet of advanced fifth-generation warplanes from Turkey, enhancing its military prowess and fostering closer ties with the Islamist nation of Turkey. Cairo is doing this in part because Israel has flagrantly worked to undermine Egypt’s domestic security by flooding the Sinai Peninsula with refugees and Hamas fighters from Gaza. Cairo is looking for ways to effectively put Israel on notice, and the KAAN will certainly do that.
Egypt moving closer to Turkey is a major geopolitical shift for the MENA region. Israel is finding itself increasingly in a hostile region in which several key players have greater access to advanced military hardware than ever before. As Israel pushes hard with its maximalist foreign policy, it risks running afoul of neighboring nations who have good and getting better defense capabilities of their own.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, The Asia Times, and others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Allora Empire Art.
