Russia’s forces are using cheap systems to saturate Ukraine’s overburdened air defenses—while saving its better cruise missiles for when the country cannot defend its airspace at all.
After an alleged assassination attempt against Russian President Vladimir Putin last week, the Russian Armed Forces have retaliated against Ukraine—the most likely culprit—with a massive missile and drone fusillade. Among the many systems the Russians deployed against Ukraine was the Dan-M Training Drone, a jet-powered training drone originally designed to mimic advanced cruise missiles for air defense exercises.
Many Western analysts were confused by the arrival of these drones, given that they are usually reserved for training purposes. A quiet consensus formed among the Western intelligentsia that the Russians, despite having access to advanced Kh-101 advanced cruise missiles, must be running low on these expensive systems—hence its sudden reliance on cheaper training drones.
Stop Saying Russia Is Running Out of Missiles
This narrative—that Russia is running out of weapons as a result of its ongoing war in Ukraine, and might run dry completely if only the war would go on for a little longer—continues to enchant many Western analysts, in spite of its repeated debunking. What is more likely occurring is that the Russians simply chose to use a cheaper alternative to the Kh-101 because they’ve got so many Dan-Ms in their arsenal. Under those circumstances, why not just use the Dan-Ms, which can be fashioned to behave like the Kh-101 anyway?
Indeed, Moscow’s forces may be paving the way for yet another revolution in military affairs. In his excellent new Substack, Trench Art, veteran military reporter David Axe described what the Russians were doing with the Dan-M as “a recombobulation skirmish for a recombobulation era.” The description is clunky, but apt.
Axe goes on to assess that the Ukrainian air defense system deployed to shoot down the incoming Dan-Ms was itself an example of recombobulation—“a do-it-yourself air-defense system,” utilizing “at least one R-73 air-to-air missile fired from the ground.”
While the conservation of more expensive Kh-101s may hold some merit—after all, what professional military leader would willingly waste valuable ordnance, even if there were more coming down the supply chain?—the notion that Russia is running low simply doesn’t pass the smell test. A far more likely theory is that the Russians are trying to scramble and spread out Ukraine’s air defense systems to their breaking point—weakening them in anticipation of a decisive blow with the Kremlin’s most cutting-edge missiles.
Putin’s Drone Strategy Could Break Ukraine
By launching a variegated arsenal of missiles and drones, Russia is diversifying its attack pattern. The Dan-M’s high speed and low-altitude flight profile make it a challenging target to fight, especially given the improvised nature of Ukraine’s air defenses.
By blasting Ukraine with swarms of cheap, abundant drones—including the Dan-M, armed with a 500-pound bomb—the Russians are exhausting Ukraine’s defensive screen on the cheap, saving their still-growing Kh-101 arsenal for once Ukraine’s air defenses have been reliably broken by the cheaper drones. What’s more, the deployment of the Dan-Ms in clusters of the more lethal Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones further complicates Ukraine’s ability to defend itself from Russian retaliation, while providing cover for the more important Shahed-136.
The fact of the matter is that, in spite of the weekend’s events inside Russia, Moscow is winning the war. It is not running out of the Kh-101 advanced cruise missile. Its forces are simply being smart, and using cheaper systems to saturate Ukraine’s overburdened air defenses while saving the better cruise missiles for when the country cannot defend its airspace at all. Unfortunately for Ukraine, that day is coming very soon.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Chubykin Arkady.
