The Hamas leadership appears to be working if it has completely replenished its strength to pre-October 7 numbers. Has it?
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has begun its march into the Gaza Strip with the intent of re-occupying the territory and annihilating the Hamas terror group once and for all—incidentally leveling the Strip in the process. Hamas, supported by Iran and armed with an arsenal of missiles capable of hitting deep inside Israel, numbered around 20,000-30,000 fighters before the dastardly October 7 terrorist attack on Israel.
The Facts on the Ground in Gaza
After the IDF initially retaliated against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hamas’ numbers are thought to have dwindled to around 16,000-18,000. However, Israeli intelligence has speculated that since the Israelis counterattacked the terrorist group, it has likely replenished its numbers by recruiting from disaffected Gazans—and its overall strength is back at around 20,000 fighters. Of course, the level of training and lethality of these fighters remains in question. But purely on a numbers basis, it is clear that the Israeli war on Gaza—launched with the intent of destroying Hamas once and for all—has been a strategic failure.
Indeed, that invasion has created a humanitarian crisis in Gaza. In pursuing a force of around 20,000, the IDF has obliterated most of the strip through air, artillery, and drone strikes, killing roughly 50,000 people—presumably most of them civilians—and leaving millions homeless. Of course, this is an unfortunate and increasingly unavoidable aspect of war—particularly as Hamas has shown no respect for the laws of war and has regularly used human shields throughout the conflict. But there are long-term costs to Israel to pursuing such a destructive approach. That the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not seem to appreciate or understand this reality is bizarre.
However Israeli leaders may justify the massive bombardment campaigns against civilian targets in Gaza, the images of children calling for their mothers beneath the rubble of their apartments that were just collapsed by Israeli bombs have resonated far more than any strategic logic or political defense Israel can proffer.
Yes, in many instances, the Israelis destroy civilian housing where Hamas has holed up or is hiding weapons. And there can be no doubt that Hamas actually wants Palestinians in Gaza to suffer as a result of Israeli actions—further propagating the narrative that Israel is the occupier and Gaza is the victim (and Hamas, therefore, is the savior). But these facts still do not negate the power of the image. Nor do they override the real human suffering occurring in Gaza that is directly resulted from these Israeli strikes.
Hamas’ Proposed Missile Deal With Egypt Is a Sign of Strength
Incidentally, on the matter of strategy, the Hamas leadership appears to be working if it has completely replenished its strength to pre-October 7 numbers. The Israeli war plan didn’t work. Now the Israelis are going back in with plans to stay. The first time didn’t work. Nor will the second.
Now comes the really disheartening news. During President Donald Trump’s whirlwind tour through the Middle East, in which he radically altered America’s engagement with the region by cutting historic deals with the Gulf Arab states, Hamas apparently floated the prospect of disarming their missile arsenal in exchange for guarantees that Israel would not return in force to Gaza.
According to Israel’s i24 news channel, Hamas’ leadership publicly floated the prospect of handing over their vast missile arsenal to Egypt in exchange for a ceasefire promise with Israel.
Hamas’ calls for peace, naturally, went unanswered in Jerusalem. The cynic would say this was because Hamas is still reeling from the last round of fighting. That may be. But if Israel’s own estimates that Hamas has restored its fighting strength are accurate, then there was likely something more behind that. One possibility is that Iran—which, in spite of its public intransigence, is seeking a deal with the Trump administration over its nuclear program—placed pressure on their Hamas proxies to dial things back with Israel, reasoning that doing so would win goodwill from the Trump administration.
But Netanyahu seems to have wanted nothing to do with the offer. Those missiles are the single greatest threat that Hamas poses to Israel. That Jerusalem did not even attempt to mitigate that threat and work with the Egyptians, with whom Israel enjoys relatively healthy relations, will go down as a one of the gravest errors in political judgment when the history of this unstable era in Mideast history is written.
Israel Will Get Bogged Down in Gaza
Rather than engage the Egyptians and Hamas even as a simple measure of buying time, Israel has embraced the worst possible strategy: restarting the occupation of Gaza.
But Netanyahu simply cannot keep this up. By bogging down the IDF in a long-term occupation in Gaza—replete with massive guerrilla attacks—while its forces are also providing security in the West Bank, occupying Mount Herman in Syria, deploying to bomb distant Houthi targets in Yemen, keeping an eye on Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon, and possibly preparing to strike Iran, something will have to give.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Anas-Mohammed.
