Why Curtis Sliwa Is the Most Important Man in New York

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Today, Curtis Sliwa is the most important man in New York City. That’s not because the red-bereted founder of New York’s Guardian Angels will become the next mayor, but because he can determine who does.

A new poll from AARP/Gotham Polling shows it clearly: if Sliwa stays in the race, frontrunner Zohran Mamdani will win. The poll shows the Democratic Socialist with 43.2 percent against former governor Andrew Cuomo’s 28.9 percent and Republican Sliwa’s 19.4 percent. In a two-way race, however, Cuomo comes within striking distance of a victory: he’s at 40.7 percent to Mamdani’s 44.6 percent, within the poll’s margin of error.

The bottom line is that Sliwa doesn’t have a viable path to victory. Everyone knows it—except, it seems, Curtis Sliwa.

What’s keeping him in? His theory of victory assumes that he starts off with the 28 percent support he received in the two-way 2021 general election. It’s a curious hypothesis, given that he hasn’t reached anything close to that share in this year’s polls. Even if Cuomo dropped out, chances are that Sliwa would lose, perhaps with a vote share somewhere in the 30s.

Because of these stubborn realities, several of Sliwa’s key supporters have distanced themselves from him in recent days, leaving the candidate increasingly isolated as early voting approaches this Saturday. Last month, former Conservative Party candidate George Marlin wrote that voting for Cuomo would give Republicans a chance to build a strong voice against progressives. But “if voters stick with Sliwa, who will lose in a blowout, we will have nothing except embarrassment and total irrelevancy.”

On Monday, WABC radio owner and 2013 GOP mayoral candidate John Catsimatidis urged Sliwa to withdraw. He has long been one of Sliwa’s strongest allies—hosting his radio show, serving on the Guardian Angels’ board, and backing his animal protection efforts. Fellow WABC conservative radio host Sid Rosenberg also called on Sliwa to drop out, saying, “if he can’t win, it’s time to move on.”

Perhaps most notably, the New York Post editorial board on Monday urged Sliwa to “swallow the bitter pill” of withdrawal. The Post, which has opposed Cuomo’s candidacy since its inception, is now willing to back Cuomo in order to defeat Mamdani—a sign of how high the stakes have grown.

But Sliwa has held firm. He fired back at Catsimatidis, charging that the billionaire “actually created Zohran Mamdani’s movement” and warning that “people don’t want billionaires deciding who the next mayor is.” His loathing of Cuomo is no secret—it came through at last week’s debate, as Sliwa landed some of the night’s most memorable zingers against the baggage-laden former governor.

Catsimatidis and the others who’ve called on Sliwa to quit understand that there’s no hope for a Cuomo upset unless Sliwa exits the race. If he did, Cuomo would undoubtedly pick up strong late momentum. The race would suddenly become competitive, and would-be supporters would recognize that it might still be possible to prevent socialism from entering City Hall.

Cuomo and Sliwa share similar bases, which is why Cuomo picks up much more new support than Mamdani in the AARP/Gotham poll’s two-way simulation. And an uncompetitive three-way race might be keeping some voters away from the ballot box who would otherwise begrudgingly vote for Cuomo in a competitive two-way contest. (Had the city adopted ranked-choice voting for the general election and not for primary and special elections, this chaos could have been avoided. Sliwa voters would rank him first, followed by Cuomo.)

Cuomo and his campaign have also recognized, perhaps belatedly, that he needs to woo right-of-center voters to win. On October 10, Cuomo joined Rosenberg’s program and said that, in retrospect, he would have vetoed the 2019 bail reform legislation. On Rosenberg’s show again this past Friday, Cuomo appealed to Republican and moderate voters to drop their support for Sliwa.

Besides polling, there are other reasons to think that large voting blocs would rally around Cuomo in a last-minute push against Mamdani. Last week, prominent New York rabbis spoke out against Mamdani’s record and rhetoric against Israel. “I believe Zohran Mamdani poses a danger to the security of the New York Jewish community,” warned Conservative Rabbi Elliot Cosgrove of Park Avenue Synagogue. Rabbi Ammiel Hirsch of the Upper West Side’s Stephen Wise Free Synagogue said of Mamdani’s past rhetoric and actions, “These are not political disagreements. They are rigid ideological commitments that delegitimize the Jewish community and encourage and exacerbate hostility towards Judaism and Jews.” (Mamdani in the campaign has repeatedly condemned antisemitism and antisemitic violence, including acknowledging a “crisis of antisemitism” just before the primary.)

Mamdani has, unsurprisingly, lauded Sliwa’s decision to stay in the race. He’s casting the Guardian Angels founder as another alternative who isn’t beholden to billionaires. As Napoleon once said, “never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”

But aside from boosting Cuomo’s chances significantly, Sliwa’s exit might accomplish something else: prevent Mamdani from achieving a majority. Last week’s Fox News poll showed that 52 percent of likely voters would support Mamdani in a three-way matchup (compared with 28 percent for Cuomo and 14 percent for Sliwa). With Sliwa out, Mamdani might slip below 50 percent.

Even if he wins, Mamdani’s degree of political support matters because he’s going to need cooperation from Albany to achieve most of his agenda. If lawmakers and Governor Kathy Hochul see that he won with a majority, they’re more likely to give him the tax hikes and other approvals he seeks. A mere plurality win, by contrast, allows them to pump the brakes, as Mamdani’s mandate would be murkier.

If Sliwa stays in the race, he will be remembered as the man who delivered New York City to Zohran Mamdani. After all the good he has done for the city—patrolling the subways for decades, giving voice to New Yorkers’ frustrations, and personifying New York’s old grit—he deserves a better legacy than that.

Photo by Roy Rochlin/Getty Images