Not long ago, Colorado, Washington, and Oregon were widely hailed as states with bright futures. For decades, they attracted scores of out-of-state migrants, turning Denver, Seattle, and Portland into celebrated urban hubs.
But that changed as these states began adopting the very policies—above all on energy, housing, and regulation—that many newcomers had fled from in California. Once politically purple, Colorado, Washington, and Oregon have turned solid blue, embracing the same agenda that even the New York Times concedes has turned “the California dream” into “a mirage.”
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True, Colorado, Washington, and Oregon have yet to reach California’s levels of dysfunction. Yet each shows signs suggestive of the Golden State’s experience, including lower job growth, sluggish housing-construction rates, a deteriorating business climate, and surging domestic out-migration.
The shift in migration patterns may be the clearest sign of the three states’ Californication. Like California, these states long attracted newcomers with their remarkable natural beauty. People only began leaving California—still arguably the most beautiful state in the continental U.S., with some of the most pleasant weather on earth—when its political, economic, and cultural climate became unbearable, especially for young families.
Initially, as California began hemorrhaging residents, Washington, Oregon, and Colorado kept growing as destinations for domestic migrants. Between 2010 and 2020, Colorado gained more than 390,000 domestic migrants; since 2020, that total has fallen below 24,000, per the Census Bureau. Oregon and Washington together gained well over 600,000 net domestic migrants between 2010 and 2020, but they’ve lost more than 40,000 since 2020.
What happened? Politics. Until the 2010s, all three states boasted robust two-party systems, with liberal-leaning metros and conservative-tilting countrysides. No longer. Washington, which has not elected a Republican governor this century, may be the furthest along the progressive path. Neighboring Oregon is not far behind, with consistent Democratic control of the statehouse and governor’s office since 2006.
The biggest shift has taken place in Colorado, where Republicans were highly competitive as late as 2018. Governor Jared Polis’s image as a “libertarian” largely reflects his positions on social issues. Polis, who comes from the ultra-progressive university town of Boulder, presides over a state with the nation’s sixth-worst regulatory burden.
The results of Colorado’s leftward lurch are already evident. The Centennial State, once a leader in job and income growth, now ranks near the bottom in these categories. Remarkably, it’s now among the least attractive states to outsiders. Colorado’s business start-up rate has fallen and business confidence is low, tied to concern over rising regulations. Roughly half of business owners say the state is headed in the wrong direction. Destroying an economy like Colorado’s takes work, but progressives have been busy.
None of these increasingly liberal states has imposed California’s, New Jersey’s, or New York’s levels of taxation, but each falls in the bottom half in the Tax Foundation’s business tax–climate rankings. Washington governor Jay Inslee has raised taxes, and in a situation familiar to Californians, Oregon keeps increasing taxes of all kinds, even amid a sluggish economy. As in California, regulations and taxes are pushing many Oregon businesses to locate or expand elsewhere, a recent University of Oregon report notes.
Colorado, Washington, and Oregon are also mimicking California energy policies. All three states have pledged to eliminate fossil fuels over the next two decades. They remain committed to California-style electric-vehicle mandates, which seek to get rid of gas-powered cars by 2035.
The three states’ regulation-heavy land-use policies, like California’s, are driving up housing costs. So, while faster-growing Houston, Dallas, Austin, and Raleigh have house price-to-income ratios between four and five, Portland’s and Seattle’s are well over six. That makes life in general more expensive; in Colorado, the state’s cost-of-living ranking fell from 35th in 2022 to 46th in 2024, per CNBC.
These progressive policies crush economies. That’s why all three states now rank well behind rivals like Texas, Florida, and Arizona in business-climate rankings. Over the past two decades, these states had generated many new jobs, with Colorado, Washington, Oregon, and California ranking sixth, seventh, twelfth, and seventeenth, respectively, in job-growth rates. Today, all fall below the national job-creation average, with Colorado and California close to the bottom.
As in California, progressive governance is draining these states’ budgets. While states like Florida and Texas enjoy large surpluses, spendthrift California reports persistent deficits. The Golden State’s doppelgängers have run into the same problem. Washington is looking at shortfalls that could reach $6 billion to $12 billion. Colorado and Oregon are facing the same music.
But perhaps the most damaging impact of these states’ policies has been on their once-thriving cities. Seattle gained 146,000 net domestic migrants in the 2010s but has lost nearly 100,000 since 2020. Denver gained more than 200,000 in the previous decade but has since seen a net loss of 18,000. Portland, which gained 120,000 during the 2010s, has lost nearly 33,000 in the past five years.
Much of the decline can be traced to the increasingly radical politics dominating these cities. Portland, once considered a model of urban livability, slashed its police force and turned a blind eye to lawbreaking following the 2020 George Floyd riots. The results: rising crime, homelessness, and disorder. Downtown now suffers from one of the highest office-vacancy rates in the country, and foot traffic is down 25 percent from 2017.
Seattle has experienced similar turmoil. During the 2020 riots, the city shut down for weeks and even spawned something of a communistic mini-Havana near its downtown. Many residents decamped to surrounding suburbs. Even ardent Seattle boosters lament the large numbers of empty stores and stubbornly high office-vacancy rates, with valuations declining by as much as 40 percent. Crime is down, but the city is hardly back to its pre-2020 health.
Denver also has seen its politics veer left, with its mayor, Mike Johnston, suggesting mass resistance to President Trump’s deportations. Crime, homelessness, and vacancy rates have remained stubbornly high. One downtown office building just sold at a 90 percent discount from 2019 levels.
Can Colorado, Washington, and Oregon turn things around? To do so, they will need to realize that following the California model is a prescription for decline.
Photo: Brad McGinley Photography / Moment
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