China has recognized that unmanned naval drones are the future of sea warfare—and is preparing accordingly.
Amidst wild speculation that the Chinese economy is on the brink of collapse—or that longtime paramount leader Xi Jinping may or may not be stepping down from his post at the next People’s Congress this fall—it is important to understand that the Chinese military modernization program begun in earnest about a decade ago is in its most advanced stages today. With the nominally communist regime preparing to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II with a grand military parade, the regime is preparing to showcase some of its most impressive assets.
Enter China’s series of ambitious extra-large uncrewed underwater vehicles (XLUUVs)—which have the potential to fundamentally upend the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.
The Importance of the World War II Anniversary
As an aside, it’s important to understand the significance of the anniversary of the end of World War II in Asia. Within China, World War II is known as the “Second Sino-Japanese War,” fought between both the Chinese Nationalist government of Chiang Kai-Shek and the Communists under Mao Zedong against the invading Japanese armies. That war lasted from 1937 to 1945, predating the broader World War II by two full years, and was probably one of the most humiliating events in Chinese history. Certainly, it was one of the bloodiest. Japan, a country that China historically has looked down upon, not only conquered vast swathes of territory but perpetrated a horrific genocide upon the Chinese people.
Since that time, China has nursed the idea of revenge—and hatred toward Japan and her people for generations. Indeed, while the rest of the world focuses on the likelihood of Chinese military hostilities against neighboring Taiwan, there should be more attention paid to Beijing’s possible aggression against their hated Japanese neighbors.
And this is why this military parade—and the display of Beijing’s newest XLUUV systems—is important to keep an eye on. It isn’t only Taiwan that finds itself in the crosshairs of potential Chinese regional aggression. It could be the Philippines and Japan, too.
About China’s XLUUV Systems
China’s XLUUV are larger than traditional torpedoes and are capable of carrying payloads like weapons or sensors. China’s program has accelerated since the early 2020s, positioning the nation as a leader in unmanned underwater warfare. With at least five distinct designs in development and testing, Beijing aims to enhance surveillance, strike capabilities, and strategic deterrence in what it deems to be its Near-Abroad.
The public unveiling of the HSU-001 in October 2019, during the 70th anniversary celebrations of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), marked the beginning of China’s public pursuit of XLUUV vehicles. The HSU-001 was an Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR)-focused drone, equipped with twin screw-back propellers for efficient low-speed cruising and external hard points for modular payloads. Since 2022, reports have propagated across the internet showing multiple other XLUUVs tested by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) at key naval bases, such as Sanya, Yulin, and Dalian.
According to naval analyst H.I. Sutton, some of these prototypes are armed, whereas others are clearly meant for surveillance only. What’s more, they are larger than any other XLUUVs being developed by other militaries—including those being created for the United States Navy, which is heavily invested in the XLUUV program.
Take, for instance, the UUV-300 family of XLUUVs developed by Poly Technology and displayed at the Defence Service Asia Exhibition. In May of this year, an armed XLUUV was pictured being transported to the site.
What Is China Building at the Guangzhou Shipyard?
Meanwhile, various open source intelligence (OSINT) analysts have suggested that there is a massive, secret submarine under construction at the Guangzhou Shipyard.
Some speculate that this mystery project may be the largest underwater vehicle ever constructed. That mystery submarine will allegedly boast X-shaped rudders for stealth, torpedo tubes, and possible towed sonar arrays. That would enable anti-ship attacks, mine-laying, and even potentially deploying special operations forces—to say little of its seabed warfare potential. And that last item—seabed warfare—is actually a primary aspect of these systems.
Attacks on underwater infrastructure, such as the sensitive undersea fiber-optic cables that link the world’s telecommunications together, are a constant threat. Having an unmanned system that can perform these missions would be integral for streamlining and enhancing the PLAN’s capabilities.
These advances reflect a China that is not under the impression it is collapsing or about to suffer some kind of leadership crisis. It indicates a confident, rapidly advancing military with intentions of competing with, and perhaps replacing, the United States military as the most potent force in the world. What’s more, it reflects China’s proven, superior, form of mass production. China prefers developing new technologies along a prototyping approach, where multiple designs vie for PLAN adoption, accelerating innovation in Chinese underwater drones.
China’s XLUUV Programs vs. America’s Orca Project
Unlike the US Navy’s approach with their Orca program, which focuses only on a primary design with a 6,500 nautical-mile range, China’s prototyping approach allows for specialized roles and export opportunities. That these designs exceed the US Navy’s Orca XLUUV in size is another factor driving the concern among Western analysts. The larger an XLUUV is, the greater its payload capacity and mission versatility.
At the heart of China’s XLUUV program are diverse models with cutting-edge capabilities tailored for specific missions. The UUV-300 series, including the CB and CD variants, is armed with up to four lightweight torpedoes, can cruise at 12 knots, is capable of deploying EM-12 bottom mines, and could potentially possess vertical-launch missiles. On the other hand, the HSU-001 prioritizes ISR with vertical and horizontal thrusters for precise maneuvering.
Newer models, like the AJX002, come with pump-jet propulsion and feature modular designs for easy transport and deployment via cranes. To add more complications to America’s defense against these systems, China’s XLUUVs are container-portable, enhancing their rapid deployability. Some analysts fear that future variants will incorporate nuclear propulsion, though they will more likely rely on advanced batteries or diesel-electric systems for endurance—at least for now.
Beijing has consistently demonstrated foresight, innovation, and initiative when crafting their modernization strategy and preparing to challenge the United States. One hopes that the Pentagon can shift its focus away from cumbersome, expensive, hard-to-build manned systems and focus intensely on aerial and naval drones—before it is too late.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, The Asia Times, and others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Volodimir Zozulinskyi.
