Ultimately, the PAK DA’s future hinges on Russia’s ability to overcome its technological and resource constraints.
Multiple sources—including the head of US forces in Europe—confirm that the Russian defense industrial base is operating at peak wartime efficiency, whereas the Western defense industrial base is not. With the Ukraine conflict entering what appears to be its final phase, Moscow will likely soon begin to diversify its defense industrial production away from the immediate battlefield needs in Ukraine and towards a stronger posture against NATO and the West.
Soon, the Russian Federation will not just focus on producing the weapons and platforms needed to defeat Ukraine but will start building strategic systems to enhance Russian military dominance.
All About Russia’s PAK DA Bomber
One such system is the proposed Tupolev PAK DA bomber—short for, when translated to English, “Prospective Aviation Complex for Long-Range Aviation.” Codenamed the Poslannik (Envoy), this plane represents Russia’s ambitious endeavor to develop its first long-range strategic stealth bomber. The PAK DA is intended to replace the Cold War-era Tupolev Tu-95 Bear long-range bomber, as well as complement the upgraded Tu-160M2 Blackjack bomber.
PAK DA focuses on stealth, and will have advanced avionics as well as be able to carry a versatile payload. Moscow envisions the PAK DA as a potential challenger to the American B-2 Spirit long-range strategic stealth bomber, as well as the newer American B-21 Raider. Despite decades of development, however, the PAK DA program faces significant technological, economic, and geopolitical challenges that cast doubt on its timeline and ultimate success.
Designed as a subsonic, flying-wing-style strategic bomber—much like the B-2 and the B-21—this new Russian stealth bomber is a departure from Russia’s traditional emphasis on supersonic bombers such as the Tu-160. The flying-wing structure eliminates traditional aircraft components such as a fuselage, tail assembly, and protruding control surfaces, relying instead on sophisticated flight control computers to maintain stability. This configuration, combined with radar-absorbing materials, aims to reduce the aircraft’s radar cross-section (RCS), meaning this bird can theoretically penetrate advanced air defense systems without being detected.
Russian sources claim the PAK DA will have a range of between 7,500 and 9,320 miles, allowing it conduct truly long-range strike missions without refueling. Its payload capacity is estimated at 30-35 tons, surpassing the B-2’s 20-ton limit. The PAK DA will carry a mixed payload of conventional, nuclear, and even hypersonic weapons (such as the Kh-102 nuclear-tipped cruise missiles and derivatives of the Kh-47M2 hypersonic missile).
Some Russian sources are claiming that the PAK DA will be in the “sixth-generation” model of warplanes, incorporating advanced technologies, such as internal weapons bays, network-centric warfare capabilities, and the potential for unmanned or artificial intelligence-driven drone-teaming features. Russian media sources further speculate about the inclusion of possible laser weapons, which Russia has been developing for years, though this technology remains underdeveloped for air combat.
The bomber’s engine will be derived from the upgraded Kuznetsov NK-32 Tier 2 used in the Tu-160M2. It is designed to enable 30-hour nonstop flights and operate in extreme conditions, with a service life of 12 to 21 years.
Russia Has Wanted the PAK DA for Decades
The PAK DA is not a new program. Indeed, its origins can be traced back to the late 1990s and early 2000s, with formal requirements issued by the Russian Air Force in 2007 and financing beginning in 2008. Tupolev, under the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), was tasked with its development, with production facilities centered at the Kazan Aircraft Production Association (KAPO).
By 2013, the subsonic flying-wing design was selected, emphasizing stealth over speed, and the final draft was approved in February 2019. Construction of the first aircraft components began in late 2019, with reports of a full-scale mockup completed by 2017 and prototype production underway by 2021.
Despite the ambitious nature of the PAK DA project, the program has faced formidable obstacles. First, Russia’s development of stealth technology has lagged far behind the United States. While the American integrate radar-absorbing materials (RAM) into their airframes during manufacturing, Russia relies on post-production external coatings developed at the Scientific Centre for Applied Problems and Electrodynamics (SCAPE). Analysts believe that these coatings offer limited survivability against modern air defenses, undermining the bomber’s stealth credentials. Indeed, Russia’s only operational stealth aircraft is the Su-57 “Felon”—which the Russian military has largely avoided using over Ukraine, owing to its low numbers and concerns about its survivability.
The PAK DA is in the primary prototype phase, with at least one full-scale mockup and several smaller models for testing. Russian sources claim multiple prototypes are under construction, with a demonstration model expected within the next year. The first test flight has been repeatedly postponed, and serial production is unlikely before 2030 due to ongoing technical and economic challenges. Rostec and Tupolev, the two Russian defense contractors working on the bomber, insist that this situation is fine.
Ultimately, the PAK DA’s future hinges on Russia’s ability to overcome its technological and resource constraints. The war in Ukraine continues to strain the defense sector, and prolonged sanctions could further erode Russia’s industrial defense. Meanwhile, the US is already deploying the B-21 Raider—and China’s secretive H-20 stealth bomber is progressing, widening the strategic gap.
Russia’s decision to upgrade the Tu-160M2 as a stopgap measure reflects the urgency of maintaining operational capability. Should the Russians get the PAK DA flying, however, they will join an elite group of nations with modern, sixth-generation stealth aircraft.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock.
