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What Is America’s Long-Term Ukraine Plan, Anyway?

Wisely, the United States has kept its own forces out of direct combat, choosing instead to treat Ukraine as a proxy in a broader strategy to degrade Russia’s conventional military capabilities. 

The United States has been an important player throughout the ongoing Ukraine War. Since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, the United States has pursued a grand strategy designed to support Ukraine’s defense, contain Russia’s aggression, and reinforce the Western-led international order—all without directly engaging in a military confrontation with Russia. The strategy is consistent with longstanding trends in US strategy, with an emphasis on deterrence, alliance building, economic influence, and global balancing. 

The United States Wants to Defend Ukraine—and Weaken Russia

One of the United States’ primary strategic objectives in the region is to weaken Russia’s military and political power. To that end, the United States has strengthened Ukraine throughout the current conflict, aiming to prevent its conquest by Russia and strengthen it as the frontline of a future European alliance. Washington has aided Kyiv throughout the war via extensive arms shipments, intelligence sharing, and financial assistance. In fact, without US assistance, Ukraine may well have fallen to Russia earlier in the war. Instead, the United States has enabled Ukraine to hang on, for three-plus years, and even reverse Russian territorial gains. 

Wisely, the United States has kept its own forces out of direct combat, choosing instead to treat Ukraine as a proxy in a broader strategy to degrade Russia’s conventional military capabilities. The strategy aims to impose long-term costs on Moscow—roughly comparable to those experienced when the Soviet Union became bogged down in a decade-long conflict in Afghanistan and subsequently suffered regime collapse—without risking US lives or instigating open conflict between NATO and Russia. 

In an attempt to avoid an all-out war between the United States and Russia, Washington has committed to a set of escalation management principles. From the opening hours of the conflict, the United States established clear boundaries—including no US troops on the ground, no airstrikes on Russian territory with US weapons, and no overt attempt to overthrow Russian President Vladimir Putin. These principles acted as guardrails, demonstrating America’s wider fear of nuclear escalation. US support has been calibrated accordingly: powerful enough to prop up Ukraine and keep them in the fight, but limited to avoid a greater provocation of Russia. 

America Has Options Short of War

A key strategic tools in America’s arsenal has been economic pressure against Russia. The strategy is designed to cripple the Russian economy gradually through the targeting of critical sectors like energy, finance, defense, and technology. Also, the United States has disrupted the global supply chains that contribute to Russia’s ability to make war, and increased its domestic costs, causing Putin’s regime to face political pressure at home over the cost of living. The United States has relied on asset freezes, blocking access to US dollar transactions, and sovereign debt restrictions. It has also banned high-tech exports, placed restrictions on dual-use technologies and banned US imports of Russian energy products. 

Lastly, the United States has gone to great lengths to reinforce the NATO alliance. Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine has reinvigorated NATO, which had largely atrophied since the end of the Cold War. The result has been an increase in defense spending among European allies; also, the effect has been to draw previously neutral countries, most notably Sweden and Finland, closer to the alliance. 

America’s strategy has not been without its detractors. Some critics argue that while the US has allowed Ukraine to survive through three years of conflict, the support has not been generous enough to allow Ukraine to decisively win. Conversely, others argue that the United States should not be involved at all, that any involvement is a waste of resources on a conflict that bears little bearing on US strategic interests and has the acute potential to escalate into a nuclear confrontation. Essentially, the United States has developed a grand strategy towards the Ukraine War that makes inherent compromises, leaving few in the United States satisfied.

About the Author: Harrison Kass

Harrison Kass is a Senior Defense and National Security Writer at The National Interest. Kass is an attorney and former political candidate who joined the US Air Force as a pilot trainee before being medically discharged. He focuses on military strategy, aerospace, and global security affairs. He holds a JD from the University of Oregon and a master’s in Global Journalism and International Relations from NYU. 

Image: Shutterstock.

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