The fact that the Burmese military junta lost a JF-17 to another Chinese system will probably not trouble many of the militaries looking to buy cheaper Chinese weapons and warplanes.
China’s defense sector has had its moment in the sun in the wake of the recent four-day war between India and Pakistan. The Indian Air Force (IAF) was expected to simply overpower Pakistan’s Air Force (PAF) when they initiated hostilities in retaliation for what New Delhi believed to have been Pakistani-backed terrorist attacks in Kashmir.
Instead, Pakistan got the better of India during a high-profile aerial engagement—during which India lost at least one, and perhaps several, Dassault Rafale 4.5-generation fighter aircraft. The IAF was apparently stunned by the effectiveness of Pakistan’s Chinese-made weapons and warplanes. Chinese-built Pakistani systems such as the J-10C, JF-17, and air-to-air missiles, like the PL-15, more than proved their worth against India’s French- and Russian-built warplane fleet.
After a Major Victory for Chinese Planes, an Embarrassing Loss in Myanmar
In the aftermath of the unexpected performance of Chinese weapons and planes, Beijing felt a rush. State media outlets celebrated the triumph of China’s equipment, and attacked Western defense firms—in many cases justifiably—for overcharging and underperforming. The message was clear: there was a new player on the board. Chinese defense firms could not only produce cheap systems en masse; their systems could challenge the dominant and far more expensive Western systems such as the Rafale.
In the weeks since, there has been a small setback for China. To be clear, it is a small one, given how well Pakistan’s Chinese systems performed against India’s. It is extremely dubious that this particular setback will be enough for Western firms to convince recalcitrant foreign clients to come back to their fold.
But a recent incident in Myanmar (Burma) showed that China’s aircraft are not invincible. On Tuesday, reports circulated that anti-government forces in Myanmar’s ongoing civil war successfully shot down a Chinese-made JF-17 fighter operated by the Myanmar Air Force. The shootdown—likely by a handheld man-portable air defense system (MANPADS)—might give some potential purchasers of Chinese defense goods pause. Ironically, the plane was apparently shot down by a FN-6 shoulder-launched surface-to-air missile—itself a Chinese-made system.
Throughout Myanmar’s turbulent recent history, China has strongly supported its military junta. In 2015, Beijing sold Myanmar’s regime 11 units of the JF-17, delivering the systems between 2018 and 2021. JF-17s are twin-seat, multi-role warplanes that China hopes will compete with French, American, and Russian models in the global marketplace.
Despite its support from China, however, the Myanmar regime has limited capabilities when it comes to dealing with the various anti-regime militias that exist in the hinterlands. Accordingly, Myanmar’s military has relied upon Chinese warplanes to bomb these militias into submission. Given how few JF-17s they have on hand in Myanmar, it stands to reason the loss of this bird will be significant.
The JF-17 Shootdown Might Actually Help China
In the Indo-Pakistani War, despite the wild success of Chinese systems operated by Pakistan, there were still mishaps. Many of Pakistan’s PL-15 air-to-air missiles failed to detonate and effectively crash-landed in Indian territory—allowing India to capture some of them to study and reverse-engineer. Nevertheless, China’s systems did perform better than anyone expected.
And the fact that the Burmese military junta lost a JF-17 to another Chinese system will probably not trouble many of the militaries looking to buy cheaper Chinese weapons and warplanes. Had this taken place with another system from France or the United States, that might be different. But the fact remains that the Western-made weapons and warplanes are far more expensive, harder to maintain, and more complex—and can apparently be shot down by cheaper Chinese systems. Even with the occasional loss, the math still works out in Beijing’s favor.
Furthermore, in the specific instance of Myanmar, it is very clear that China is actually fanning the flames of the civil war by selling its weapons to both sides. In a way, the Chinese arms export industry is benefiting from the JF-17 being shot down by a Chinese shoulder-fired MANPAD system. Now the Burmese rebels will flock to buy more MANPADS systems from Beijing—and the military junta will need to buy another plane.
So for those looking for a reason to castigate the Chinese defense industry, Myanmar is not the example to use. The West will from now on have its hands full in the global arms export market. And as the Americans and Chinese circle closer to war, Washington won’t be able to rely on their longtime technological superiority as a force multiplier in the way they could have even a decade ago.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / PVRM.
