The Russian leader is encouraging a war between America and Iran—reasoning that doing so will force Washington to disengage resources from the ongoing Ukraine conflict.
After an hour-long conversation on his birthday from Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Donald Trump told the world that the two leaders had discussed the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict. Clearly, no resolution to that conflict was proposed. But one can imagine that Russia’s leader—who has been dreaming for many months of a way to get the United States to cut its assistance to Ukraine’s Armed Forces in their ongoing war with Russia—jumping with glee when hanging up with the American leader.
That’s because, in that conversation, Trump reportedly outlined the justifications for US support of Israel during the latest Mideast war. In other words, Trump made clear that there would be no daylight separating his position on the war and that of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
It is hard to imagine a more positive development for Putin in Ukraine, except perhaps a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. To aid his position in Ukraine, Putin needs two things: the United States to stop arming the Ukrainians, and the global price of oil and natural gas to increase, throwing a lifeline to Russia’s stagnant economy. Russia is one of the world’s leading producers and exporters of natural gas and oil; the higher the price on the world market, the better Russia’s economy does—and the more money Moscow can spend on its war machine.
America Can’t Fight Two Wars at Once
Go back for a moment to the buildup of the Israel-Iran conflict. Shortly before Israel launched its “Operation Rising Lion” against Tehran, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth intervened in the regularly scheduled deployment of counter-drone systems bound for Ukraine. These systems have been pivotal in pushing back the seemingly ceaseless waves of Russian offensives over the years.
With the eve of the outbreak of a major regional war in the Mideast, though—where around 50,000 US troops and various American citizens assigned to diplomatic outposts in the region found themselves within targeting range of Iranian missiles—Hegseth understandably ordered those counter-drone systems redirected from Ukraine to US forces in the Mideast.
Putin probably could barely contain his excitement at that reality. A paucity of anti-drone weapons means that there will be more holes in Ukraine’s already-flagging air defense network. More Russian warplanes and missiles will have a chance to make it through the air defense zones of Ukraine and do more damage.
As for American resupply more generally, Moscow has made clear from the start of the Trump administration that for real negotiations to have commenced, they required at least a temporary halt to all US military supplies going to Ukraine. Either out of genuine aversion to such a poor deal or out of concern for his approval ratings at home, Trump has so far avoided issuing such an order. But the result was that Trump’s hoped-for negotiations never materialized. In hindsight, ceasing the resupply seems to have been the only way to ensure the Kremlin came—and stayed—at the table.
Russia Would Be the Biggest Winner of a US-Iran War
Moreover, had the negotiations occurred, it might very well have slowed down the shift in Russia’s favor on the battlefield.
Now the Americans will be bogged down for the foreseeable future in the Mideast, diverting their supplies away from Ukraine and toward the Middle East. This means that Russia’s war of attrition will enter its final phase against Ukraine. For all practical purposes, it appears that Moscow will be alone in dictating the terms of the termination of the conflict, rather than having to deal with Kyiv and Washington.
All else being equal—supported by the slowly-but-surely increasing price of energy as the Mideast war drags on—the Russian war machine, with its finely-tuned defense industrial base, will outlast and bleed out the Ukrainian defenders who can no longer rely upon US support.
For those wondering why Moscow is not standing more resolutely behind their Iranian allies of all these decades, that is the reason. Sure, Russia needs drones and military gear from Iran. But Russia has gotten most of what it needed from Tehran. Today, the largest foreign supplier for Russia’s war machine is North Korea, not Iran.
So losing the friendship of the Islamic Republic—and potentially abandoning it to an American-backed regime change—is harmful, but not catastrophic. In fact, it all redounds to Russia’s strategic benefit. The war in the Middle East ensures the loss of the Ukraine War.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / miss.cabul.
