Many in the West have made no secret that they hope for Russian President Vladimir Putin to be overthrown. In such a scenario, whoever succeeds him is likely to be far worse.
Say what you will about Vladimir Putin, but—contrary to how he is perceived in the West—the Russian president is not the most radical member of Russia’s political establishment. In the context of Russian imperial history, in fact, Putin isn’t even the most aggressive. Up until now, this has not really mattered because Putin has maintained such an iron grip of Russia’s political system.
But that grip, thanks to the Ukraine War, is loosening. And it is loosening in ways that neither Putin nor the West fully understand.
Today, there are real concerns within the Kremlin about far-right elements in Russia’s political system working to undermine Putin’s government. For several years there has been a general dissatisfaction among the hardline element over the direction of the Ukraine War. This element of Russian society—which is nominally toward the Aleksandr Dugin wing of Russian politics—is not angry at Putin for starting the Ukraine War. They are upset at the way he has, in their eyes, mismanaged it.
Russian Ultranationalists Are Furious at Putin
For nearly four years, the West has been up and arms about the Russian Armed Forces’ brutality and ruthlessness in their execution of the Ukraine War. Some within Russia’s tiny liberal opposition have criticized Putin for acting too violently. Many more on the Russian far right believe that he has not acted violently enough.
In the view of the Russian far right, Putin has effectively fought with one arm tied behind Russia’s back—causing a massive number of casualties and dragging the war out needlessly. This element points to Putin’s drawdown in 2022 from the Battle of Kyiv as part of a larger push by the longtime Russian president to get a negotiated settlement of the Ukraine War—a desire for peace that the Russian far right believes was used by the West to trick Putin into abandoning strategic positions around Kyiv, thereby protracting the war needlessly. One can certainly dispute that this is really what happened. But this is how the opening stage of the war has been framed by a large faction within Russian politics.
Since then, Putin has continued to fight the Ukraine War his way, but the front has moved slowly—in part, the story goes, because of Putin’s hamstringing of his own forces. If only, the far right grouses, a different leader was in charge so that the Russian Armed Forces could be given carte blanche to annihilate Zelenskyy’s obnoxious upstart regime in Kyiv.
That opportunity might yet come. Or at least that’s what the Kremlin fears. And the reason is because of the ongoing back-and-forth between Russia’s air force and the collective air defenses of NATO. For several weeks there has been a significant increase in drone incursions and intrusions by Russian warplanes into NATO airspace. These have been highly provocative actions taken by Russian forces. Fears abound in Brussels that the Russians are readying to attack Europe.
Putin—and NATO—Are Whistling Past the Graveyard
To be clear: Vladimir Putin is not preparing to do this. He is, at most, trolling the Europeans; prodding them to try to force NATO and Ukraine to the table so he can finally get his deal ending the war. But NATO is taking a different approach. They are threatening to shoot down the next Russian warplane that dares to violate their airspace. Even President Donald Trump, who entered office promising to end the Ukraine War “on day one,” is urging NATO’s European members to shoot Russian planes that enter their airspace down.
Counterintuitively, that step would be welcomed by the radical element in Russia’s political scene. As the ultranationalists see it, this would force Putin to effectively put up or shut up. If a Russian plane was shot down by NATO, and Putin either refused to retaliate or respond in a muted way, that wing of Russia’s political establishment would work to push Putin and his loyalists out of power. Putin understands this on some instinctive level—and is resolved to respond forcefully to any NATO shootdown of a Russian plane, should it occur soon. The Russian response, in turn, could lead to general war on the European continent.
But Putin is resolved to do this because he is that concerned about the radical element in his own house using any limited response against a European shoot down of a Russian plane, no matter how deserved, to mount a challenge to Putin’s power. This is something that the Western leaders who are beating their chests at Russia fail to take into account.
It also underscores why getting a peace deal with Russia ending the Ukraine War as soon as possible is so important. The longer the war drags on, the more likely it is that, rather than peace, the world will sleepwalk into another world war.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, The Asia Times, and others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Asatur Yesayants.
