Knowing what overarching strategy guides both nations is essential to acquiring a comprehensive understanding of the war.
The Ukraine War, which was sparked by the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014, has been ramping up in intensity since Moscow’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. During the conflict’s three-plus years, both Russia and Ukraine have pursued distinct grand strategies centered on their respective political objectives, security concerns, and broader geopolitical ambitions.
What Is Russia’s Grand Strategy?
Russia’s grand strategy—which has been on display throughout the war—centers on reasserting Moscow’s place as a regional hegemon, preventing NATO expansion, and challenging the Western-led international order. Most importantly, Russia views Ukraine as a vital buffer zone whose alignment with Western states, if fully realized, would pose an existential threat to Putin’s regime.
At the start of the invasion, Russia hoped for a rapid regime change in Kyiv, but its efforts failed, forcing Moscow to transition to a strategy of attritional warfare focused on consolidating territory, with an emphasis on the land bridge extending from Russia to Crimea and the Donbas region. Accordingly, Russia has escalated its military effort through mass mobilization and expanded drone and missile strikes on civilian infrastructure. On the home front, Russia has undergone a reorientation of its economy, calibrating it especially for wartime.
Russia has complemented its military campaign by leveraging energy as a geopolitical weapon, restricting gas flows to Europe in an attempt to fracture Western alliances. The effort has only been partially successful, highlighting Moscow’s broader aim to exploit economic and political vulnerabilities in the West. Moscow has also leaned into information warfare—domestically and abroad—aimed at maintaining regime support, eroding Ukrainian morale, and generally delegitimizing NATO. On the diplomatic front, Russia has combated its increased international isolation through cultivating stronger ties with fellow pariah states such as China, Iran, and North Korea.
What Is Ukraine’s Grand Strategy?
The Ukrainian grand strategy throughout the conflict has for obvious reasons been highly defensive in nature. However, it has evolved into a more multidimensional effort as the war progressed—aimed at preserving Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, regaining occupied territories, and further solidifying the country’s ties to its Western benefactors. Put simply, Ukraine’s grand strategy is about survival.
To achieve its stated grand strategy objectives, Ukraine has adopted a military strategy of asymmetric and mobile defense, paired with selective offensive operations such as counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson. Kyiv is heavily dependent on the West for intelligence gathering and the provision of long-range precision weapons. Moreover, as the war has progressed, Ukraine has increasingly focused on deep strikes inside Russia, mainly through the use of drone warfare.
Ukraine has conducted a strategic communications campaign to complement its military efforts. Spearheaded by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine has positioned itself as the frontline defender of democracy against authoritarian aggression. This moral argument has largely proven effective in rallying Western support to the Ukrainian cause, and may have even prevented the collapse of the Ukrainian state in 2022.
In conclusion, Russia’s grand strategy is based on imperial restoration, maintaining a physical buffer zone along the western border, and preventing NATO expansion. Ukraine’s grand strategy is based on national defense in the face of an immediate existential threat.
About the Author: Harrison Kass
Harrison Kass is a Senior Defense and National Security Writer at The National Interest. Kass is an attorney and former political candidate who joined the US Air Force as a pilot trainee before being medically discharged. He focuses on military strategy, aerospace, and global security affairs. He holds a JD from the University of Oregon and a master’s in Global Journalism and International Relations from NYU.
Image: Shutterstock / Germanru.
