The full-scale war with Iran that Israel has sought for months is far too costly an endeavor for the United States.
After kicking off a full-scale war with Iran through its so-called “Operation Rising Lion” strikes on Iranian military leaders and nuclear facilities, Israel’s leadership has become cross with their American partners. Never mind that the Trump administration in Washington has supported Jerusalem the entire time—even at risk to America’s own military in the region, and perhaps even spurring pro-Iran terrorist action in the United States.
According to recent media reports, President Donald Trump had a sharp exchange with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after Trump had announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran on Monday night. Trump’s CIA director, John Ratcliffe, apparently had to have a similarly tense phone call with his counterpart in Mossad.
Why? Because Israel repeatedly violated Trump’s ceasefire in the hours that followed the American president’s announcement.
The US-Israel Alliance Is on Thin Ice—Again
In Trump’s own retelling of recent events, Israel’s military broke the ceasefire almost as soon as it was set to begin, prompting a wave of retaliation from Iran. This led Trump to make an impromptu statement to the press on Tuesday morning, in which he claimed that neither Israel nor Iran “know what the f— they’re doing!”
But the real ire has been from Israeli leaders and their supporters around the world. Though pro-Israeli elements in the United States and abroad have been celebrating Trump’s decision to both support Israel’s military operations against Iran, as well as the move by Trump to directly target Iranian nuclear weapons facilities, those same people began to rage against the American president on social media as soon as he declared a ceasefire.
Israel has been threatened by Iran for years. For a large segment of Israeli leaders, now is the time to not only degrade and destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities, but to end the threat once and for all. But in order to accomplish this task, Israel needs American military buy-in—and that requires total support from Trump.
Therein lies the problem. Trump is keenly aware of the dangers that escalation poses to both the United States, as well as to his legacy. So the 47th president is looking for a middle way—one that neither appeases Iran, as President Barack Obama’s critics allege, nor overcommits the United States to a regime change war in the Middle East, akin to President George W. Bush’s quagmire in Iraq.
Trump has just proven that he can formulate a third way. In the weekend’s attacks, Trump launched specific strikes aimed at Iranian nuclear sites—which threaten not only Israel but the United States—but paired with calls for real diplomacy and willingness to commit all sides to a ceasefire.
One can see a hint of Trump’s “Art of the Deal” in this approach. But Trump’s deal leaves Israel in the lurch; once complete, Israeli leaders will continue to grapple with an Iran that is more fanatical than ever, with a restored nuclear capacity that is far more dangerous in the wake of the recent war. This is something Jerusalem desperately wants to avoid—hence Israel’s non-stop push toward escalation.
American and Israeli Interests Are Not Aligned on Iran
But a full-scale war with Iran is far too costly of an endeavor for the United States at this point in time. Therefore, as the senior partner in the alliance, the Americans are charting a third course according to Trump’s transactional worldview.
Trump’s approach has made no one happy. The hawks smell Khamenei’s blood in the water and want Trump to go further. The doves think he has already gone too far. The Israelis will accept nothing less than the overthrow of the Iranian regime. The Islamic Republic is a fanatical Islamist theocracy, and even less likely to warm to ‘peaceful coexistence’ than Israel is. With these players, it is somewhat miraculous that Trump and his team pulled off a ceasefire agreement in the first place. But the very fact that all of these players are irate about Trump’s actions suggests that Trump has cracked the code for dealing with the Middle East.
Just go back to Trump’s recent speech in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. At that time, the president broke with the neoconservative elements in Washington who held sway over American foreign policy for decades—and used it to pursue fruitless adventures abroad. Trump insisted that those days were over. Instead, he announced that he was offering a new way: commerce over conflict. Sure, he would be willing to use force when it was needed, but he would not replicate the mistakes of his predecessors and bog the US military down in regime change and democracy promotion wars of choice.
By simultaneously resisting his irate Israeli partners and refusing to bend the knee to Iranian nuclear ambitions, Trump has reaffirmed his commitment to principles of non-intervention that he had spent nearly a decade professing. So far, at least, he has proven wrong the critics who believed he had foolishly plunged America headlong into yet another Mideast war.
But can Trump keep Israel on-side long enough to get a more permanent end to the current fight that allows for US forces to extricate themselves more fully from the fighting? Only time will tell.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / noamgalai.
