The decision to mass-produce robotic systems inside Ukraine keeps costs down, but exposes Kyiv to supply interruptions due to Russian bombing.
Viktor Pavlov, a commander in Ukraine’s Third Separate Assault Brigade and the founder of a “Ground Robotic Systems School,” has told the international press that Ukraine needs around 30,000 ground robotic systems (GRS) by next year. That may seem a tall order, but remember that Ukraine is basically burning through all of its military supplies—and its manpower—at much faster rates than what Kyiv can replenish them at. Pavlov bases this requirement for 30,000 GRS units upon what he described as “an understanding of losses and scaling.”
Ukraine is planning to deploy 15,000 GRS units to the battlefield by the end of 2025. Contracts have already been signed—as many as 31 in the first quarter of this year alone—to complete the order. Most of these GRS units are being produced indigenously in order to keep costs down. Indeed, the costs vary depending on the robot. Small, simpler machines run as cheap as $10,000 (or less), while the more advanced systems go up to $50,000 per unit (or more).
The Need for Ground Robotic Systems
The GRS units aren’t just tiny toys. Ukraine’s Armed Forces are using them in a variety of combat and support roles—ranging from logistics, casualty evacuation, mine clearance, and even fire support. Ukrainian units are already utilizing these machines in their combat missions along the horrific frontlines. These machines have been described by Ukrainian leaders as “game-changing” because they can perform very dangerous tasks without putting soldiers (whose numbers are dwindling at alarming rates for the Ukrainian side compared to the attrition rates of the Russians) in harm’s way, according to Defense News.
Since 2024, Kyiv devised a three-year plan to scale the production of drones, electronic warfare systems, and ground robotic platforms to better aid Ukrainian forces in their ongoing war with Russia. “Brave1” is a Ukrainian government-industry initiative and they are deeply involved in the development of this key program. In fact, they’re developing many different unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) designs, as reported by Defense News.
Thus far, more than 200 different ground robot designs are registered or under consideration for development.
The Third Assault Brigade of Ukraine’s Armed Forces says it used only ground robotic systems, along with first-person view (FPV) drones, in a mission that led to the surrender of Russian troops. Meanwhile, there are “robotic vehicle units” established in the Ukrainian Armed Forces to institutionalize the use of UGVs, as reported originally by Reuters. Some UGV models are more advanced and can be equipped with sophisticated weapons. One system, the Krampus, has been armed with thermobaric rocket-propelled launchers for assault against infantry and light armor.
There remain many downside risks and complicating factors with this new technology, of course. Many of these robots are still being refined. Difficult terrain, such as mud, snow, and other obstacles—all of which are found in abundance on the battlefields in eastern Ukraine—can present challenges for the efficient and effective operation of these systems. Reliable connectivity is crucial. But, in modern combat zones, maintaining control over long or complex territory is hard, especially in electronically degraded settings.
With Robots, Ukraine Gets What It Pays For
Even though there are systems that are less than $10,000 per unit, the more expensive systems tend to be more reliable and useful in combat against the Russians. Another issue is the underlying doctrine for using these unmanned systems. Commanders and troops need to develop new tactics, including how to integrate UGVs into traditional infantry, engineering, and artillery formations. Until that happens, these systems will not be worth the costs.
What’s more, producing tens of thousands of these ground robots is a major industrial challenge. With Ukraine under constant attack—especially its infrastructure—the fact that these systems are being built within Ukraine to save money makes sense, but exposes this project to massive disruptions due to Russian attacks on the infrastructure undergirding this indigenous drone production project. Even if Ukraine’s wartime industry ramps up, delivering (and sustaining) 30,000 units is one of those goals that’s easier said than it is done.
Nevertheless, if Ukraine succeeds in their ambitious project of acquiring 30,000 UGVs for their Armed Forces, these ground robots could significantly amplify Ukraine’s declining force on the ground. With sustained losses and manpower constraints, UGVs will plug the manpower gap by doing labor-intensive or dangerous jobs. This push for greater UGVs will also build up Ukraine’s domestic defense-tech industry, strengthening not just military capacity. It will help to enhance Ukraine’s industrial base (such as it is).
Using robots for logistics, casualty evacuation, and even assault changes how frontline units operate. It could shift the calculus of risk for both sides. Some UGV types may deliver more bang for their buck versus traditional vehicles or other manned platforms. This is most true for those high-risk missions against Russian forces.
So Ukraine’s desire for 30,000 UGVs is ambitious and its under-siege defense industrial base will be put to the test meeting this demand. If it can meet that demand, though, Ukraine has a massive advantage over their Russian foes.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, and the Asia Times. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Kamix-studio.
