On the surface, Kyiv’s agreement with Saab to build domestic air defense systems inside Ukraine will help it in its war against Russia. In reality, it will make no difference.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense has confirmed an agreement with Saab to jointly produce air-defense systems on Ukraine’s ever more insecure soil. It’s all part of Ukraine’s “Build in Ukraine” indigenization initiative—and it likely will prove to be wholly insufficient to turn the tide of the war. Yet it indicates the importance of Ukraine trying to amass as many capabilities as possible in its own territory to make its supply chains less vulnerable to disruption at a crucial time for its survival.
The systems in question aren’t fully specified yet, but analysts point to Saab’s impressive portfolio. For instance, the RBS 70 NG man-portable air defense system (which Kyiv’s forces already employ) and the vehicle-mounted version M-SHORAD (short-range defense on a mobile platform) as plausible co-production items. It is all part of Ukraine’s broader industrial policy shift to move into becoming a manufacturing and industrial partner with its Western backers. Ukraine wants to build locally and integrate into Europe’s defense-industrial ecosystem.
Why Would Any Company Want to Build in Ukraine?
Despite having signed multiple agreements with European defense firms to co-produce weapons inside of Ukraine—with great fanfare in the Western corporate press, too—none of these joint ventures have matured. The most famous joint venture was announced in 2023 in which Turkey’s most prominent drone maker, Baykar, opted to build a drone factory near Kyiv.
That factory was planned to be completed by this year and to employ 500 people producing drones with Ukrainian components. In March of this year, Baykar began training potential employees at this Ukrainian factory.
But nothing of any more significance has occurred with this factory. It seems to have all been for show—especially since Ukraine would need to still rely on Turkey itself to provide drones and repairs for its systems more than Baykar’s Ukraine factory ever could provide (if it ever opens).
Further, given the sustained bombardment that Ukraine is under, no matter how shielded it tries to make its weapons factories, the fact remains that these factories will be under constant threat of disruption and destruction. That will stymie the Ukrainian war effort beyond how it has already been stymied.
With What Population Will Ukraine Build Weapons in These Factories?
Ukraine thinks that this will create local opportunities for their ailing population, such as job opportunities that haven’t existed there for years and skills training that Kyiv believes can be translated to the wider Ukrainian economy.
Given the sheer number of Ukrainians who have either fled the country or been conscripted to fight in this hopeless war, who will man these factories? And for how long can they possibly run as Ukraine feels the squeeze from Russia as it has never felt before?
Saab thinks it’s setting up a new market in Ukraine while the Europeans believe this will create the vital infrastructure for a sustained fight against Russia. There is no evidence of this. Given the risks involved and how preliminary this supposed deal appears to be, it is far more likely that Saab is trying to appease the European elites who all want to see Europe rearm soon (fat chance) while helping Ukraine to stand strong against Putin’s Russia. None of this is likely to happen given the instability on the ground. What’s more, Ukraine is likely hoping to give the appearance that they will fight on so as to continue receiving support from the West.
Europe Continues Putting on the Ukraine Show
To show you how much of a psyche out of Western media sources this Saab non-deal is, there is no real timetable offered let alone a discussion of what kind of weapons Saab will be co-producing with Ukraine to fight Russia indefinitely.
Rather than trying all these neat tricks to keep President Donald Trump invested in the failing crusade that is the Ukraine War, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy must abandon these fantasies and make a deal with Putin before he unleashes hell upon Ukraine, and there’s no longer any incentive for Putin to negotiate.
Saab should protect its own investments as well and avoid getting sucked into the Ukraine quagmire any more than they already have. There will be no profit made in Ukraine and it’s unlikely that any factory will ever co-produce any of Saab’s weapons systems in a timely or reliable manner that would have any real impact on the outcome of the Ukraine War.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, The Asia Times, and others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / paparazzza.
