As Turkey grows in power, Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan would much prefer Iran to be weak and divided. The United States and Israel appear poised to make this dream a reality.
With the advent of open warfare between Israel and Iran, seismic changes are underway in the Middle East. The entire world seems to be drawn into this conflict—not only the United States, Russia, and China, but other middle powers as well. Everyone in the region, from Saudi Arabia and Jordan to even India and Pakistan, is now involved in one capacity or another.
The one exception to this rule has been Turkey, which has remained deafeningly silent following the outbreak of war in neighboring Iran. Why?
Does Erdogan Support Iran or Israel?
In spite of their religious differences—Iran representing Shi’a Islam and Turkey Sunni Islam—Ankara and Tehran have long enjoyed amicable relations. Indeed, back in 2013, an “oil-for-gold” scandal erupted in which Turkey was implicated in helping Iran to circumvent Western sanctions on Iranian oil in exchange for gold.
There have been a smattering of unconfirmed reports, too, that Bashar al-Assad’s former military bases in Syria—taken over by Turkish military units allied to the Turkish-backed Syrian government since the fall of Assad’s regime—have electronically interfered with the operations of Israeli warplanes flying overhead on their way to strike targets in Iran.
Still, it would be too simple to say that Turkey and Israel were overt enemies. Confoundingly, the Turks have also allowed for Israel’s primary airline—El Al—to base their civilian jets at the international airport in Turkish-controlled Northern Cyprus. Even more strangely, this comes as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vows to wipe out Israel and “liberate” the Palestinian Arabs from Israeli “oppression.” Strange bedfellows indeed!
In Syria, the new Islamist regime—led by former al-Qaeda terrorist Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, hastily rebranded as modern technocrat Ahmed al-Sharaa—has apparently moved its forces to seal Syria’s border with neighboring Iraq. That’s because Iraq has devolved into a proxy war between US-backed Iraqi militias and Iranian-supported Shiite militias, such as Kataib Hezbollah. The last thing the Syrian regime wants would be to allow Iranian agents to cross into Syria—potentially destabilizing the government and using Syria’s land to smuggle personnel and weapons into the waiting arms of Iran-allied Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon.
In short, Turkey is attempting to be all things to everyone. But whose side are they really on?
Turkey Is Playing the Long Game
The key to understanding Turkish foreign policy is understanding the motives of its leaders. Since the early 2000s, Turkey has been ruled by the Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP). Erdogan is a proud Islamist who has openly repudiated Turkey’s secular political tradition. More dramatically, he styles himself as the sultan of a new Ottoman Empire. His geopolitical ambitions—and Turkish actions on the global stage—have mirrored these grand designs.
To reclaim Turkey’s historic dominion over the Middle East, Ankara must do away with its competitors. So while Turkey has sought stable relations with Iran, Erdogan most certainly does not want to see an ethnic Persian, Shi’a Muslim power in the ascendancy in the heart of the Middle East. Erdogan would much prefer Iran to be weak and divided. The United States and Israel appear poised to make this dream a reality. If in the process they should weaken themselves—and keep them from challenging Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman Turkey in the future, all the better.
By fighting Turkey’s enemies, America is paving the way for its rise. Once the Iranian regime is no more of an alternative power center to Turkey’s rising Islamist role in the region, Ankara will turn on the Israelis—and move to take the dominant position in the Greater Middle East.
Turkey Can Threaten Israel in Ways Iran Never Could
This doesn’t even begin to detail how Turkey’s defense industrial base has been cranking out massive numbers of advanced warships, warplanes, drones, and other weapons—while both the Israeli and the American defense industrial bases are increasingly unable to meet the current demands of the global threat environment.
At this rate, once Iran’s regime is done away with, the Turks will be able to assert themselves in the region in ways not experienced since the days of the Ottoman Empire. Once they have a clear field, with their military primed and ready for war, the Israelis and their allies will likely be in for a rude geopolitical awakening.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Sasa Dzambic Photography.
