A Middle Eastern war is not in America’s interest. But peace merely for the sake of peace, with implacable enemies of the United States and the West, is a terrible idea.
President Donald Trump has distanced himself from Israel and is now attempting to reorient the United States toward the Muslim world. Trump wants to enhance ties with Saudi Arabia by allowing them to develop a civilian nuclear program without requiring them to recognize the predominantly Jewish democracy of Israel.
At the same time, Trump has entered a ceasefire with the Iran-backed Houthi rebel group in Yemen. He even appears to want to create a better version of former President Barack Obama’s nuclear weapons agreement with Iran.
Now, Trump reportedly wants to recognize a Palestinian state. Doing so would be disastrous.
We’re a Long Way from the Abraham Accords
In Trump’s first term, his signature foreign policy accomplishment was crafting the historic “Abraham Accords” between Israel, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates. This was Trump’s attempt to create a durable security framework that empowered America’s traditional regional allies—Israel and the Sunni Arab states of the Persian Gulf—to contain and deter nuclear-arming Iran while the United States returned to an offshore balancing position.
The key to the Abraham Accords’s success—as Trump’s son-in-law and personal adviser Jared Kushner explained at the time—was that they eschewed the messy issue of having to address the unresolvable Palestinian question. Indeed, it is likely that the Abraham Accords moved from the conceptual phase to the real-world because Trump in his first term in office did not seek to get bogged down in the impossible attempt to resolve that conflict. After decades of fighting Israel over the issue of Palestinian statehood, the Arab world had started to finally move on from that and pursue relations with Israel that were in their own best interests.Predictably, the Iranians disliked this concept, and thus intensified their cynical support for the Sunni Arab population of the Palestinian territories in order to keep America distracted.
Palestine Can’t Have Statehood Now
There are so many bad ideas floating around Trump’s Middle East policies right now that it can be painful to think about. The creation of a Palestinian state would be little more than the birth of a “pre-failed state.” For one thing, the physical geography of the Palestinian Territories is incongruous. The West Bank is run by Fatah, the successors to Yasser Arafat’s Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). It is totally disconnected from the Gaza Strip, which is run by the Iran-backed Hamas terror group.
Of course, Hamas doesn’t care one bit about nationhood for the Palestinians. Its character is jihadist rather than nationalist; it wants only to inflict the heaviest casualties and battlefield victories upon Israel. The probability that Hamas’ leadership really wants to see a Palestinian state emerge from the ashes of the Middle East is vanishingly low. Islamist extremists view nation-states as the byproducts of heretical societies, while the Islamic nation (ummah) should be united without regard for artificial creations like borders—under their leadership, naturally.
So Hamas doesn’t really want national liberation for Palestinians living in Gaza. They want permanent war, because this is what their masters in Iran want. Hamas doesn’t care about Palestinian statehood.
And Fatah in the West Bank is little better. It is hopelessly corrupt and out-of-touch with ordinary Palestinians. This corruption has spread to every institution within the Palestinian Authority. It has done nothing to warrant greater responsibility to manage its own affairs, or international recognition of its legitimacy.
For Trump to waste his time on the fantasy of midwifing a Palestinian state illustrates the dangerous flailing that’s occurring within his administration. Spending any presidential time or effort on Palestinian peace will only sap Trump’s efforts to pursue more meaningful work—and fritter away his limited political capital in the process.
Giving Saudi Arabia Nuclear Reactors Is Dangerous
As for letting Saudi Arabia develop nuclear energy for civilian purposes, this is an insanely bad idea. Yes, the current crown prince, Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), has control over his country and is implementing major reforms under his “Vision 2030” plan, which aims to diversify Saudi Arabia’s economy so much that it no longer is only viewed as an oil power.
But this has put MBS in a dangerous position. What’s more, MBS has done more than any Saudi leader since King Abdulaziz to concentrate power within his own hands. This is useful for his purposes. But should anything befall MBS, who would replace him? No one knows.
It may be worth recalling that Iran’s nuclear weapons program originally began as a civilian nuclear energy program developed under the Eisenhower-era Atoms for Peace plan and implemented by the Shāh. Nuclear energy and nuclear weapons development can be backdoors for developing nuclear weapons. And Saudi Arabia’s MBS has already told Western media that if Iran looks to be getting the nuclear bomb, then Saudi Arabia would have to as well.
We know that Washington desperately wants a deal with Iran over their suspected nuclear weapons program. By removing the hurdles to the Saudis from getting access to nuclear materials, Trump is opening the door for Saudi Arabia to eventually build nukes on its own. That’s all well and good—for now. But what happens if an Islamist revolution overthrows MBS and replaces him with a fanatic? We’re sure it couldn’t happen, of course. But we thought it couldn’t happen in Iran, either.
Trump Should Not Get Bogged Down in the Middle East
And, as a brief aside, Trump cannot trust the Iranians to deal fairly or above board. While war must be avoided, Trump knows that starting a war in the Mideast right now would derail his agenda and make him a truly lame-duck president.
Trump should not let himself get bogged down in all these side issues in a very complex region like the Middle East. War is not in America’s interest. But peace merely for the sake of peace, with implacable enemies of the United States and the West, is a terrible idea.
Would not a better solution simply be to finalize the Abraham Accords—by having Saudi Arabia recognize Israel—and having them contain and deter Iran while we finally sat offshore? Or are we just going to pretend Trump’s moves will magically work to bring peace to that troubled region where all others have failed?
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
