On July 28, Dmitry Medvedev, the current deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council and the country’s former president during Vladimir Putin’s brief vacation from power, issued an ominous tweet about Russia’s nuclear weapons capabilities.
This was not Medvedev’s first tweet, or his twentieth, implying a willingness to initiate nuclear war with the West. But it was unique in that President Donald Trump—no stranger to online sparring matches—responded by stating that he would deploy two of America’s nuclear submarines into Russia’s near-abroad.
Trump Supposedly Sent Nuclear Submarines to Russia
According to Trump, “We had [to deploy the submarines]. We just have to be careful. A threat was made and we didn’t think it was appropriate, so we have to be very careful. So, I do that on the basis of safety for our people. A threat was made by a former president of Russia and…we’re going to protect our people.”
But Medvedev has been making such proclamations and threats from behind his X (formerly Twitter) account for years. This is nothing new. Why divert America’s already stretched submarine force away from the Indo-Pacific, where it is needed, to make the Russians squirm? In any case, how much squirming will the Kremlin really do, given that those two submarines are entering the region of the world where the bulk of Russia’s submarine force is located—the proverbial lion’s den?
Peter Suciu, writing in these pages, posited the following: “There is no indication where the submarines were deployed or if they were ballistic missile or cruise missile submarines (SSBNs or SSGNs).”
In other words, Trump is bluffing once more. Even if the president’s move is purely intended for public consumption, the Russians understand that the Americans are increasingly impotent on the world stage. As such, their fear factor is greatly diminished—and the Kremlin’s desire to go beyond its current mission in Ukraine can only increase.
Loose Talk Can Damage American Deterrence
Fear of reprisal is a key element of deterrence. Trump justifiably admonished Medvedev in the past for invoking nuclear armageddon at the drop of a hat. Medvedev has by now a well-earned reputation for making such threats; if he wishes for anyone in the United States to take him seriously, he should learn to control his temper.
At the same time, however, the United States has no business stooping to Medvedev’s level. As Trump has said, “Words have meaning.” And threatening to deploy nuclear submarines off the coast of Russia in response to the former Russian president’s social media diatribe is dangerous and destabilizing at a time when Russo-American relations are at their nadir.
More importantly, if Suciu’s reportage is correct and Trump never even sent the submarines, then the words Trump spoke have no meaning. This is no way to conduct foreign policy if one seeks to still be considered as a “superpower.” As Medvedev ought to know by now, if threats have no force behind them, they are no threats at all.
So what are observers to make of this? Trump is issuing irresponsible threats toward Moscow in order to beat his chest. Either Trump will not follow through on these threats, making them hollow—or he will follow through, dangerously escalating tensions between America and Russia at a critical geopolitical moment. Neither course of action is good for the United States.
Trump Is Not in a Position to Bluster on Ukraine
This is all against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine, where Russia is steadily on the advance. The reason that Medvedev is brow-beating the world with nuclear threats is simply because the Russians have the Ukrainians right where they want them. Moscow understands that, unless the Americans are planning to escalate into direct conflict with nuclear-armed Russia, the Russians are achieving their objectives in Ukraine.
By threatening Russia with nuclear submarines because of bloviation from a former Russian president—and likely not even following through with that—Trump does not make America look strong.
Instead, what Washington should be doing is using its leverage over the Russians, the Ukrainians, and Europe’s NATO members to force a negotiated settlement. The Russians have expressed their willingness to work with the Americans. But diplomacy is a two-way street; the United States must be willing to halt the weapons shipments into Ukraine, and it must be willing to meet the Russians as an equal. These are hardly significant concessions—and the rewards for peace would far outweigh whatever perceived benefits remain to continuing to fight a losing war against Russia in Ukraine.
Instead, the United States has so far continued posturing and pontificating when it should be seeking peace—and as a result, it is much further from a peace deal with Russia than it was six months ago.
Ultimately, Medvedev is not the president of Russia. He says ridiculous things. So does Trump. One must hope that this is all simply braggadocio before the inevitable end of the conflict comes. The alternative is too alarming to contemplate.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Brian Jason.
