The new order will be decidedly less American, likely toxic to the Israelis, and overwhelmingly Islamist in nature.
Did the United States lose the Global War on Terror? This is perhaps the only takeaway that one can make from the recent, radical maneuvers by President Donald Trump in the Greater Middle East. It’d be easy to blame the forty-seventh president of the United States for these seemingly slap-dash, slipshod changes.
The Speech Heard ‘Round the World
This, of course, would be somewhat unfair.
Trump is merely the last line of a series of American presidents who, regardless of party, were deeply invested in the grand project—a crusade of sorts, in the formulation of former President George W. Bush—to remake the Middle East via democracy promotion, human rights advocacy, and regime change in unwilling nations.
In his visit to Riyadh, Trump was explicit that this pattern would not continue. In his remarks, he said: “The gleaming marbles of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi were not created by the so-called ‘nation-builders,’ ‘neocons,’ and ‘liberal nonprofits,’ those who have spent trillions and trillions dollars failing to develop Kabul, Baghdad, and so many other cities. Instead, the birth of a modern Middle East has been brought by the people of the region themselves. … In the end, the so-called ‘nation-builders’ wrecked far more nations than they built and the ‘interventionalists’ were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand themselves.”
Trump is the only one of the post-Cold War American presidents who understands that Washington’s 20-year crusade in the Middle East hasn’t been working. While his solutions may yet end up worsening everything, at least they mark the end of one failed era—and the start of something different.
What Good Came of the Global War on Terror?
After spending more than two decades fighting the Taliban, al Qaeda, ISIS, the Houthis, and countless other hydra-headed villains of the global jihadist insurgency, squandering trillions of dollars, and losing thousands of American soldiers—and hundreds of thousands of allies—how can anyone seriously claim that the Americans achieved their intended goals after the 9/11 attacks?
The Taliban and their al Qaeda partners are again in command of Afghanistan. Neighboring Pakistan is more Islamist than ever and just beat the nominally Western-backed India in a four-day war. The USS Harry S. Truman, a Nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, will soon quietly leave the Middle East after constant threat of being sunk or seriously damaged by Houthi anti-ship missiles.
Iraq remains a land bitterly divided between Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds. Libya, too, is torn between pro-Russian elements and pro-Turkey jihadists. And Turkey’s leading proxy in Syria, the terrorist group known as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), successfully removed Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad from power last year—adding that country to Ankara’s orbit.
The Islamists Have Won Control of the Middle East—For Now
Turkey’s government is not officially a declared ally of the Muslim Brotherhood, but most assuredly shares an ideology with that movement. The Muslim Brotherhood was formed in the 1920s under Hassan al-Banna, an Egyptian firebrand seeking to overthrow British imperial power over his Egyptian homeland.
Merging Islam with quasi-fascist or communist-type political organization, the Muslim Brotherhood over the course of the twentieth century became the umbrella organization for a variety of other Islamist entities engaged in violent jihad against the West, Israel, and the Arab strongmen the Islamists viewed as apostates.
By the time Osama bin Laden came around, his ultimate objective was to trigger a pan-Islamic revolution against the U.S.-led Mideast order. Bin Laden and the al Qaeda terrorist group were originally an anti-Saudi royal family resistance movement that believed they had to strike at the Americans, Riyadh’s main foreign backer, in order to initiate the pan-Islamic revolution. Accordingly, the 9/11 attacks were designed to show the so-called “true believers” of the Islamic world that even Uncle Sam could bleed.
Bin Laden’s goal was always to see his Islamist ideology, if not al Qaeda itself, spread as never before throughout the region. Today, this dream seems to have been realized. From Afghanistan to Iraq to Syria to Libya, Islamist movements are sweeping the region. There is nothing that America can do—or has done—to stop this ceaseless wave of revolution.
So, whether for better or worse, Trump is flipping the script. He will no longer play a losing game of whack-a-mole with the Islamists and their allies in the region. Clearly, Trump is not interested in doubling-down on an endlessly expanding military engagement the likes of which will yield mixed results at best and cost countless American lives, blood, and treasure.
Trump Is Quitting and Pulling Out of the Region
No other U.S. president had the gumption to try what Trump is trying. None were, strangely, humble enough to recognize that the United States lost the Global War on Terror at least around 2011, when the Americans turned and ran from the Iraq War and when the Islamists lit the region aflame in the disastrous “Arab Spring.”
Trump is quitting this vicious cycle. The only question that remains to be answered, however, is: what will the rest of the world make of this decision? Will Trump be rewarded with a golden age of peace and prosperity? Or will the Islamists use this as a further sign that they have been blessed by Allah and seek greater gains from the West?
Going forward, one can foresee a new Middle East that is decidedly devoid of U.S. influence—with the Sunni Arab states balancing against Shiite Islamist Iran and a powerful Turkey, possessed of its own brand of Sunni Islamism and convinced that it is the true heir of the Ottoman Empire that collapsed in the 1920s after the First World War. Under this new, post-American Middle East order, the Israelis are being served up as the sacrificial lamb.
All is not lost, yet. Changes to the situation can still be made. But this appears—for now—to be the general direction. Trump is pulling the Americans out of the region and he doesn’t care about the fallout (in fact, he’s trying to make some money for the U.S. with all these new trade deals with the Saudis, as a consolation prize for America’s obvious defeat).
Trump will avoid further entanglements and leave the region. In his wake, he will not leave the Sunni Arab-Israeli security framework originally envisioned by his first term Abraham Accords. Instead, the Middle East will be governed by a Turkish-Sunni Arab coterie, with Iran possibly normalizing relations with those two entities.
Whatever happens next, there will be no going back. Trump has midwifed a new order in the Middle East. It will be decidedly less American, likely toxic to the Israelis, and overwhelmingly Islamist in nature. A tragic end to the Global War on Terror indeed.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / noamgalai.
