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Trump Cannot Negotiate a Ukraine Peace Deal While Favoring Russia

Although Donald Trump has maintained the appearance of a neutral mediator on Ukraine, his statements and actions made it clear that he aligns with Vladimir Putin’s position.

Last week, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa of Portugal, a founding member of NATO, raised eyebrows on both sides of the Atlantic when he said of Donald Trump: “[T]he supreme leader of the world’s greatest superpower is, objectively, a Soviet or Russian asset. He functions as an asset. … Objectively speaking, the new American leadership has strategically favored the Russian Federation.”

The president chose his words carefully—using “asset” in the sense of someone useful or valuable to Russia, rather than “agent,” denoting a committed employee or servant.  He did not offer examples of Trump’s pro-Russia behavior. Still, he did not need to; the world has witnessed it, starting with Trump’s absurd campaign boast that he could resolve the Ukraine conflict “within 24 hours” if elected. The only conceivable way an early end to the war could happen would be for the United States to convince one of the warring parties that no amount of further destruction, bloodshed, and economic cost would enable it to achieve its military-political objectives. To persuade Ukraine of the futility of its resistance, America would need to cut off both its material and moral support, dooming it to a battlefield defeat unless it could offer Russia a deal on terms highly beneficial to the Kremlin. Conversely, a Russian pullback would require the opposite policy—stepping up U.S.-European economic, political, and military support for Ukraine, and conducting a maximum pressure campaign including secondary sanctions on countries such as China and India that are keeping the Russian economy afloat and abetting Putin’s aggression and war crimes. 

After his election, Trump quickly showed which of the two combatants he would squeeze.  He treated the aggressor and the victim as moral equivalents, thereby gratuitously conceding a vast ground of undeserved legitimacy to Vladimir Putin, one of the world’s foremost war criminals.  Although he maintained the appearance of a neutral mediator, his statements and actions made it clear that he aligned with Putin’s position, even adopting the Russian leader’s ridiculous claim that Ukraine had started the conflict. Trump can justifiably say of his first term that “Obama sent Ukraine blankets, I sent missiles,” but virtually everything he has said and done since returning to office exposed a feeling of deep-seated contempt for Ukraine and its heroic president, Volodymyr Zelensky.

Trump’s treatment of Zelensky is a dramatic contrast to his fawning awe of Putin who seems to have an unbreakable grip on Trump’s affection and loyalty.  It is difficult to judge which was the most embarrassing moment in recent presidential history: the contemptible bullying and persecution of Zelensky by Trump and Vice President JD Vance in the Oval Office, ending with his unceremonious ejection from the White House; or Trump’s worshipful welcoming of Putin to Alaska as a conquering hero, eminent statesman, and long-lost friend. Partially rehabilitated from his status as an international pariah by Trump’s red carpet treatment, Putin continues to ignore the American president’s demands and deadlines.

Meanwhile, two weeks before the Alaska meeting, Trump had imposed a 50 percent tariff on India, ostensibly as punishment for its purchase of Russian oil. That move, however, may have been related mostly to trade negotiations, since Trump did not impose any punitive tariffs on China, which imports substantially more Russian oil than India does.  Xi Jinping also facilitated Russia’s invasion when he and Putin announced a “no limits strategic partnership” just two weeks before endorsing each other’s designs on Ukraine and Taiwan.  China has been sending dual-use military technology to Russia ever since.  Last week, Xi hosted Putin and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un to pledge the three leaders’ separate and joint commitment to upend the US-led international order.  Only missing from this strange alliance was Iran’s Ali Khamanei, who recently experienced a robust demonstration of Israeli and American resolve against its nuclear weapons program.

Like Joe Biden before him, Trump understandably fears standing up to Putin, lest it trigger World War III.  But also like Biden, he fails to recognize that America is already in the early stages of a similar global struggle—and it is manifested in virtually every domain except direct and outright kinetics. Russia has no more incentive to follow a path to national suicide than America does, but the Kremlin is are happy to keep pushing the limits and let the West bear the burden of avoiding escalation by paralyzing its own actions.  Trump must change that dynamic.

About the Author: Joseph A. Bosco

Joseph Bosco served as China Country Desk Officer in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, a nonresident senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council of the United States. He is presently a member of the advisory board of the Global Taiwan Institute and a fellow of the Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS).

Image: Wikimedia Commons.

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