India’s access to cheap Russian gas gives it little fear of the Trump administration’s sanctions. If Trump could restore Russian gas to international markets, this arrangement would collapse.
Peter Navarro, senior counselor for trade and manufacturing to the White House and a member of President Donald Trump’s inner circle, had some choice words for India in a recent interview with fellow MAGA influencer Steve Bannon on the latter’s War Room podcast. Navarro quipped in his typical staccato that the current fracas between Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi “won’t end well for India.”
Navarro’s brusque statement was part of a larger message the White House adviser and President Trump’s high priest of tariffs had for India in the wake of a near-total breakdown in US-India relations.
That breakdown began as an understandable spat over what the Trump administration believes to be unfair trade practices by India. A week ago, on Fox News, Navarro escalated the dispute by making racially tinged remarks claiming that Modi and other Indian “Brahmins”—the highest class in India’s ancient caste system—were suppressing poorer Indians in lower castes.
The spat between the Trump administration and Modi’s government has since devolved significantly to include threats of sanctions over India’s ongoing purchases of large amounts of Russian energy sources. Those Russian energy sources have been under sanction since Moscow’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine and the start of the ongoing conflict tearing the world apart.
Why Is America Pushing India Away?
Navarro’s comments about India have been so egregious that he even insinuated that Prime Minister Modi himself was a war criminal for purchasing cheap Russian energy. He has since compared India to a “vampire sucking [America’s] blood dry” through unfair trade practices.
This entire ordeal has exposed a fundamental disconnect between key Trump advisers—and likely the president himself—and the geopolitical and geoeconomic realities that the United States faces today. Navarro and Trump appear to believe that by linking the ongoing trade war to India’s purchases of Russian energy, they will somehow acquire the moral high ground and increase their leverage over India. The far more likely outcome, however, is that they will drive india further away from the United States on other issues, such as standing up to China and shunning the nominally Chinese-led BRICS alliance—of which India is a member, albeit a recalcitrant one. In the weeks since the dispute began, India has begun moving closer to Beijing, with Modi attending the recent summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Tianjin, China in late August and meeting cordially with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
The fact remains that, intentionally or otherwise, the Trump administration has now tied its trade issues with India to the war in Ukraine. If Trump and his team really want to force India to come to the table and negotiate fairly on trade with the US, they need to stop the Ukraine War. What’s more, they will need to work feverishly to normalize relations with Russia in order to reintegrate their energy sources on the market.
The Ukraine War Means India Can Dominate Russian Energy Flows
So long as Russia is limited in which countries it can sell its vast energy resources to, India will always purchase Russian energy at bargain prices.
Recall the end of the Cold War and the reunification of Germany. At that time, few believed that reintegrating the poorer, former Soviet-controlled East Germany with the liberal, wealthier West Germany would do anything other than cripple the Western German economy. Yet while there were some bumps at the start, reintegration went far better than most experts predicted. This was in large part because of the early—and sensible—decision by German policymakers to build Berlin’s post-Cold War economy on the foundation of cheap Russian natural gas.
Since the Ukraine War, Germany has been forced to wean itself off of these supplies and instead had to rely on costlier energy sources. In so doing, the German economy has imploded, causing all manner of problems for the once mighty Central European economy.
India picked up the slack once Germany and the rest of Europe cut itself off from Russian energy. Since that time, India has followed the German model, and is building its economy off the back of cheap Russian energy. The West is of course unhappy about this development, as Indian money is helping fund Russia’s war effort. But the deal is a good one for New Delhi—and the logical move for a nation acting in its own best interest.
If the Ukraine War were to end, and sanctions lifted on Russian oil and gas, India would once again need to compete with the Europeans and others for access to Russian energy sources. As a result, their costs would go up—and they would be more amenable to working with the Trump administration on important trade issues.
Right now, India has what it needs, does not feel that it needs to negotiate, and does not fear Trump’s wrath. But this could all change if the Trump administration could bring an end to the fighting in Ukraine. Of course, the Trump team has been grappling with this problem for months; the only way to do so would be to terminate all aid to Ukraine immediately, forcing Kyiv to come to the table and negotiate an end to the war on terms favorable to Russia. The international community would howl at such a series of events—but political normalization could begin, the European Union could restore its access to cheap Russian gas and revitalize its stagnant economy, and India would be forced to compete on the open market again for affordable energy.
End the Ukraine War to Reset Trade Relations with India
I have written for many years about how so many of America’s geopolitical problems can be resolved by improving relations with Russia. The only way to do that is to end the Ukraine War as quickly as possible, under whatever terms possible. Only then can US objectives around the world move forward. Until the Trump administration grasps this basic fact, it will continue getting the sequencing wrong on these issues, and will fail to achieve its objectives.
The cold, hard reality is that as long as India does not have to compete with other potential buyers of Russian energy, they are not incentivized to change their policies under the threat of American pressure. Trump must take note—and act accordingly.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, The Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
