Is President Trump actually serious about his thunderous tariff threats on US trade partners?
Since last February, President Donald Trump has sought to unilaterally restructure the global trade system in favor of what he views as the commercial interests of the United States. His instrument of choice: the tariff, or, as the president describes it, “the most beautiful word to me in the dictionary.” Whatever its beauty, the tariff is generating immense friction both between the United States and its longstanding economic and security partners as well as within the domestic economy. And it does not appear to be going away anytime soon.
After issuing threats on trade with Canada, Mexico, and China in February, Trump moved in April to reset the trade regime with nearly every nation on the map. Under his plan, the United States would impose a 10 percent baseline tariff on all imports, with supplementary duties determined by the existing bilateral trade balance. Stock market chaos ensued, prompting the White House to delay implementation for ninety days and to carve out numerous exemptions for the electronics and automobile industries.
Today, more than three months later, little has changed. While the administration has concluded new trade agreements with China, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam, their potential benefits remain uncertain. Meanwhile, negotiations with the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and many others continue to stall or have yet to begin. On July 9, as the initial pause expired, the administration pushed the deadline to August 1, warning 21 countries that unless they reached a satisfactory trade deal by then, the United States would finally impose the full suite of heavy tariffs. To underscore his seriousness, the president also announced a 50 percent duty on copper imports, leaving businesses and foreign governments at a loss as to what comes next.
As deadlines once again creep forward, key questions remain. What are President Trump’s actual goals with his tariff policy? American reindustrialization? Leverage for more favorable trade terms? More federal revenue? Is the president serious about imposing sweeping tariff barriers by August 1, or will Trump, as the saying goes, “always chicken out” (TACO)? More importantly, how will the White House’s tempestuous economic policymaking impact US economic performance and political dynamics throughout the remaining half of the 2020s?
In this episode of Three Questions, Paul Saunders speaks with Jacob Heilbrunn, the editor of The National Interest and is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He is the author of They Knew They Were Right: The Rise of the Neocons, which The New York Times included on its 100 notable books of the year in 2008, and America Last: The Right’s Century-Long Romance with Foreign Dictators.
He has written on both foreign and domestic issues for numerous publications, including The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, Reuters, Washington Monthly, and The Weekly Standard. He has also written for German publications such as Cicero, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, and Der Tagesspiegel.
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About the Speakers:
Paul J. Saunders is President of the Center for the National Interest and a member of its board of directors. He is also Publisher of The National Interest. His expertise spans US foreign and security policy, energy security and climate change, US-Russia relations and Russian foreign policy, and US relations with Japan and South Korea. Saunders is a Senior Advisor at the Energy Innovation Reform Project, where he served as President from 2019 to 2024. He has been a member of EIRP’s board of directors since 2013 and served as chairman from 2014 to 2019. At EIRP, Saunders has focused on the collision between great power competition and the energy transition, including such issues as energy security, energy technology competition, and climate policy in a divided world. In this context, he has engaged deeply in energy and climate issues in the Indo-Pacific region, especially US relations with Japan and South Korea. His most recent project at EIRP is an assessment of Russia’s evolving role in the global energy system.
Jacob Heilbrunn is editor of The National Interest and is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He is the author of They Knew They Were Right: The Rise of the Neocons, which The New York Times included on its 100 notable books of the year in 2008, and America Last: The Right’s Century-Long Romance with Foreign Dictators. He has written on both foreign and domestic issues for numerous publications, including The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, Reuters, Washington Monthly, and The Weekly Standard. He has also written for German publications such as Cicero, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, and Der Tagesspiegel.
Image: President Donald Trump holds a press conference on June 27, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)
