The message from the Houthis, ensconced in their mountains in northern Yemen, was to de-escalate—or else.
On Sunday, the Houthi rebels based in Yemen pulled off a shocking strike against Israel—hitting Ben-Gurion International Airport, the country’s main airport, with a ballistic missile. Though no one appears to have been killed in the attack, at least eight Israelis were wounded, and dozens of flights were delayed or cancelled. Now the Israeli Air Force (IAF) is threatening mass retaliation against the rebel group.
The strike on Ben-Gurion is notable because, while the Houthis have regularly fired off their expansive and variegated missile arsenal off at Israel, few have managed to hit their intended targets. But this particular Houthi missile managed to evade interception and hit its vital target.
Israeli—and American—defense planners should be asking why.
How Did Israeli Air Defenses Fail on Sunday?
The Iron Dome is an incredible air defense system that has saved countless lives within Israel, and it is one that America should emulate as it works to construct its own defense system—dubbed the “Golden Dome” by the Trump administration.
Yet contrary to the wall-to-wall positive press coverage Israel justifiably receives for its Iron Dome system, there are real limitations to that defensive network. And the Americans aren’t even really in the game when it comes to comprehensive, layered, national missile defenses.
As for the Israelis, their system simply failed. This was bound to happen sooner or later, given the level and severity of threats facing the predominantly Jewish democracy in the Middle East (the only democracy in the region, in fact). But by and large, until now, the Iron Dome has functioned at a far higher level than one might have assumed.
For their part, the Houthis claim they tested a new hypersonic missile on Israel’s defenses. Many Western analysts are understandably skeptical of this claim. But it should not be rejected out of hand.
The Houthis Likely Shot a Hypersonic Missile at Israel. More Might Follow.
In fact, the probability is high that the Houthis fired a newly-acquired hypersonic weapon into Israel. How can we tell? Because this Houthi weapon successfully evaded the layers of advanced, reliable air defenses ringing Israel—defenses that have effectively deflected almost all Houthi attacks in the past.
If the Ben-Gurion missile was, as the Houthis claim, a hypersonic weapon, then there is no active air defense system today that can defend against hypersonic weapons. So, it makes sense that Israel’s otherwise highly effective air defenses—not just the Iron Dome, but also the U.S.-provided Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and the domestically developed David’s Sling and David’s Arrow air defense systems—would be completely unable to defend against such hypersonic weapons attacks.
The system that the Houthis used was likely an Iranian-built Fattah-1 hypersonic weapon. Or, rather, it was likely the Palestine-2 which is a modified version of Iran’s Fattah-1 hypersonic weapon. It should come as no surprise that Iran would send its new missiles to Yemen to test out against its greatest enemy in the region.
The Escalating Shadow War Between Israel and Iran
These moves against critical Israeli infrastructure by the Houthis are likely not happening in isolation.
In the last week, massive wildfires have erupted all across Israel. Those fires started just after a mysterious explosion rocked the key Iranian port of Bandar Abbas—for which Tehran still has no coherent explanation, and from which it claims there were 1,100 casualties. Since then, multiple smaller explosions have taken place at key power stations and other key infrastructure nodes throughout Iran.
While no proof exists that any of these events were man-made, the timing of the incidents—and the strategic locations of the targets—makes foul play a likely explanation.
Thus, in the wake of the explosions in Iran, it makes sense that Tehran’s Houthi proxies in Yemen would not only attack Israel but would use their most advanced weapon to do so.
Under this interpretation, the recent Houthi strike on Ben-Gurion International Airport was a signal to Israel, the United States, and indeed the world. The message from the Houthis, ensconced in their mountains in northern Yemen, was to de-escalate—or else. And that communication-via-hypersonic-missile was clearly sent on behalf of the nation from which said missile originated.
An Aerial Blockade of Israel Would Be a Nightmare
A Houthi spokesman took to the airwaves not long after the successful strike and asserted that the militant group was imposing a “comprehensive air blockade” in response to Israel’s planned return in force to the Gaza Strip.
In other words, the Houthis are readying to prevent any civilian air traffic from getting in and out of Israeli airspace. At least, that is the threat—and if there are more missiles where the last one came from, it is likely one that the Houthis could follow through on.
This is obviously an attempt to stymie Israeli military action against Hamas in Gaza, but also a swipe at the Israelis, who have regularly imposed blockades on the Gaza Strip due to Hamas weapons smuggling.
Which, of course, brings us back to the strategic situation in the wider region. The Americans, for all their firepower in the region, cannot stop the Houthi threat by any means short of a ground invasion. Nor can the Israelis. Jerusalem insists that it will strike directly at Iran, but that is likely braggadocio—at least unless the Trump administration reverses its present course and sides with the Israelis in coordinating an air war against Iran.
The Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah, and Tehran have put the Americans and Israelis into an impossible position. Washington and Jerusalem continue trying to do the same thing repeatedly, expecting different results.
A top-to-bottom, fundamental rethink of U.S. and Israeli force structure, doctrine, and grand strategy is required before any decision is made to escalate things further with Iran and its proxies. Otherwise, the costs of attacking Iran and its proxies, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu envisages, will be catastrophic for both Israeli and American forces.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / anelo.
