Light armored vehicles with tiny cannons don’t win wars. People and their guns do.
Taiwan is presently threatened with a blockade, and perhaps even an invasion, from its larger neighbor in China. Such an action could take place at any point between now and 2027, according to most Pentagon strategists. Yet rather than engage this threat with the resources it has, Taiwan continues trying to make its military into a miniature version of the United States Armed Forces.
That is not the kind of force that Taiwan needs, or should want. If Taiwan is serious about maintaining its independence in the face of a pending Chinese attack, the answer is to prepare for asymmetric warfare—using new innovations such as drones to strike back at the vastly larger and more costly Chinese arsenal. Failing this, Taipei must prepare for an insurgency—ensuring that there are enough small arms for as many of its 24 million people as possible, and sending a clear message to Beijing that any attempt at occupation of Taiwan will result in tremendous human and financial losses.
Instead, however, the Taiwanese government is investing in legacy platforms and large formations of troops, warplanes, and warships—most of which are only going to get into the way of a proper defense of the island. Taiwan’s recent procurement of the D3 Cheetah wheeled tank is instructive in this regard.
Why Taiwan Is Building the Cheetah Wheeled Tank
An 105mm Cheetah wheeled tank, known as the D5 prototype, is a domestically developed system that is aimed at bolstering rapid response capabilities amid escalating regional tensions. Taiwan’s military planners believe the D5 prototype could evolve into a mobile powerhouse, blending high-speed maneuverability with potent firepower to enhance asymmetric warfare strategies.
The Taiwanese are likely looking to the alleged success of the US-made Bradley fighting vehicles, deployed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces against the invading Russians, as proof. But reports of the effectiveness of the Bradley and other NATO systems such as the French AMX-10 are likely exaggerated. In any case, the systems have also seen high losses—so high in the case of France’s AMX-10 that the Ukrainians have simply sidelined those vehicles because of their weakness against advancing Russian armor.
Taiwan wanted to replace their aging M41D light tank and support joint force brigades in fast-mobile strikes, which prompted the birth of the Taiwan Cheetah wheeled tank back in 2019. Collaborating entities included the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST), Factory 202 for systems integration and munitions, Factory 209 for the chassis, and the Military Academy of Sciences.
Early prototypes of the Cheetah, the D1 and D2, were completed by 2023 and unveiled the following year. However, they faced setbacks, including the height that exceeded army requirements, leading to considerations of cancellation and a reported rejection in April 2025 due to insufficient firepower and design flaws. Undeterred, an additional tranche of Taiwanese tax dollars was allocated in 2025 for the D3 prototype, which addressed these issues through redesigns.
On August 14, 2025, during the Ministry of National Defense’s “Defense Online” program, the D3 was revealed. It will next be displayed at the Taipei Aerospace and Defense Technology Exhibition. This iteration boasts approximately 89 percent domestic component integration, underscoring Taiwan’s commitment to indigenous defense manufacturing.
The Cheetah’s Specifications
- Year Introduced: Not introduced (prototype phase)
- Number Built: Unknown
- Length: Approx. 7 m (23 ft)
- Width: Approx. 2.7 m (8 ft 10 in)
- Total weight, battle ready: Approx. 22 tonnes; likely lighter
- Suspensions: Unknown
- Engine: Unknown; likely Caterpillar C12 diesel (450 hp)
- Top speed: Approx. 100 kph (62 mph)
- Range: Approx. 500 km (310 mi)
- Crew: 4
The Taiwan 105mm Cheetah D3 prototype is built on the second-generation Clouded Leopard M2 eight-by-eight wheeled chassis, a derivative of the CM-32/33/34 family, offering superior mobility over tracked alternatives. Key dimensions include reduced weight and a body that is shorter than the failed D2 prototype. This allows for a lower profile in urban and coastal settings.
For its armaments, Taiwan’s Cheetah reportedly sports:
- A low-recoil 105mm rifled gun, compatible with ammunition from M60A3 and CM-11 tanks, capable of penetrating 500mm of rolled homogenous armor at 2,000 meters using APFSDS rounds (while moving);
- A coaxial 7.62mm machine gun;
- A 12.7mm remote-controlled weapon station (RCWS), doubling as the commander’s sight;
- Armor that can stand up to 30mm armor-piercing rounds; and
- Smoke grenade launchers for camouflage in ground engagements against other armored vehicles.
What sets the D3 Cheetah apart is its blend of firepower and agility, ideal for fire support and anti-tank missions. An electric servo drive system ensures precise targeting with dual-axis stabilization, enabling “hunter-killer” operations where the commander identifies targets while the gunner engages. All-weather electro-optical systems detect vehicles at 2,000 meters and personnel at 1,200 meters. Learning from the shortcomings of its D2 predecessor, the D3 features a rear-positioned turret for better weight distribution, improved ammunition capacity, and refined side mirrors for enhanced situational awareness.
This wheeled tank is designed for shoot-and-scoot tactics, hit-and-run ambushes, and rapid deployment—leveraging Taiwan’s extensive road network for decentralized operations. Its lower operating costs and faster repositioning make it a cost-effective alternative to heavier tanks. But this fails to account for the fact that Chinese doctrine calls for the targeting of as much of Taiwan’s extensive road network as possible in the run-up to any invasion of the island, limiting its effectiveness.
How truly useful will these systems be without those handy roads? Or against heavier armor of the kind that China will deploy on the island? And bereft of their mobility, how hard will these Cheetahs be to destroy from the air?
Taiwan Doesn’t Need the Cheetah
Taiwan’s strategic planners believe this system will be key to their overall asymmetric defense doctrine because it can possibly counter amphibious threats from China through layered, mobile defenses. Taipei believes that the Cheetah will enhance coastal defense and infantry defense. But its main gun—a 105mm cannon—has been shown to be weak. What’s more, there is no way that Taiwan’s layered defense network can indefinitely withstand the pounding that Chinese invaders will subject it to.
The embattled island democracy continues spinning its wheels in trying to replicate the appearance of the US military. This is a doomed strategy. It did not work for the South Vietnamese during the Vietnam War. It did not work for the Afghan National Army (ANA) when the Taliban returned to power in 2021. Taiwan must abandon it before it is too late. Rather than modeling itself after South Vietnam, it must model itself after the Viet Cong—embracing insurgency as a strategic tool if it intends to prevent a Chinese invasion.
And light armored vehicles with tiny cannons don’t win insurgencies. People and their guns do. Of course, the human cost of insurgency is fantastically high, both for attacker and defender; officials in Taipei might be forgiven if they prefer to focus on neater, more straightforward conventional warfare. But the sense of safety that fancy platforms like the Cheetah provide is a false one—and leaves open the path to Taiwan’s subjugation.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, The Asia Times, and others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock.
