Ahmed al-Shara’s attempts to concentrate power and spurn Syria’s minorities are destabilizing the country.
War-ravaged Syria appears to be on the brink of fracturing again. Various rebel groups, united only in their hatred for deposed President Bashar al-Assad, are now looking at each other not as allies, but through gun sights.
Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Shara, had ambitions of uniting his country when he took control of the capital, Damascus, in December. However, he has taken a wrong turn by playing favorites and consolidating power in his own hands. And despite his efforts, armed groups are targeting each other—and civilians—for revenge over religious and ethnic differences. Shara is working to bring these groups together in one army, but talks with one of the largest factions, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), have broken down.
The SDF controls 30 percent of Syrian territory, mainly in the northeast. Damascus needs this part of Syria badly. It has key oil fields and contains prisons and camps holding thousands of Islamic State (IS) fighters and their families, who nobody wants to see freed.
A March 10 US-brokered agreement between Shara’s government and Kurds has led to prisoner exchanges and some troop withdrawals, but greater integration has failed. A Paris conference meant to get things back on track was canceled on August 9. But it is Shara’s government that has failed to uphold its commitments. Since March, Shara has consolidated control over every pillar of government through an interim constitution, without consulting the Kurds or addressing their demands for cultural rights and political participation.
Shara has also failed to address the Kurds’ core security concerns, including the threat from Turkey and from within the official Syrian army’s own ranks. Turkey views the SDF’s primary component, the People’s Defense Units (YPG), as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Turkey views the PKK as a terrorist organization and says it will not tolerate the group’s presence along its border.
Inside Syria, the Kurds fear Shara’s army, elements of which have been involved in massacres of civilians, including members of minority groups such as the Alawites and Druze. As Kurdish official Murat Karayilan stated, “The weapons of the SDF are a guarantee of safety for the components in Syria and for preventing a repeat of what happened on the coast and in Suwayda.”
The Kurds are now demanding “administrative and security authority in northeast Syria and complete local control over these areas.” Additionally, the SDF wants to keep its military structure and independence, even as it incorporates its 100,000 fighters into the new Syrian armed forces. It wants to operate as the Syrian Democratic Forces and keep to the areas it already controls in northeastern Syria.
Shara rejected all these demands, stressing that northeast Syria must be under the control of the central government and insisting that the SDF must integrate into the army as individuals and not as a separate military bloc. By contrast, Shara has allowed Sunni militias to join the army as blocs, even going as far as allowing the Al Qaeda-affiliated Turkistan Islamic Party, a Uyghur armed faction, to integrate as a bloc.
Allowing the Kurds to integrate as a unified bloc in the army would be difficult for Shara, whose position is far from stable. He does not want a significant armed force operating independently in Syria. In addition, whatever deal he offers the Kurds, he may have to offer the Alawites, the Druze, and other minorities. Moreover, the more concessions he makes, the more vulnerable he becomes.
Shara’s reluctance to make a deal with the Kurds is reinforced by Turkey, which wields considerable influence in Damascus and maintains proxies inside the Syrian army. The Turks are pressuring Shara not to offer concessions to the Kurds.
According to three regional officials, Damascus canceled the Paris talks shortly after a visit by Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan. The officials said Ankara “resent[s] their exclusion from the talks” and feared losing influence if the Kurds and the Syrian government negotiated independently in Paris.
Damascus and the Kurds are on a collision course if Turkey continues pressuring Shara. Ankara has long portrayed the SDF as a threat to Syria’s unity and has repeatedly warned it would intervene militarily if “[any] group should take steps aimed at dividing Syria.”
Fortunately, neither the Syrian government nor the Kurds has threatened concerted military action—yet. However, the SDF has reported some clashes between government forces and its own militia between August 2 and August 4, leading to several casualties.
Turkey’s threats of intervention in Syria pose a serious challenge to the unity of the fragile Syrian state. Washington should discourage Turkey from using escalatory rhetoric and from preventing the Syrian government and the SDF from negotiating.
America should also pressure Turkey to halt its efforts to reignite conflict with the SDF, which would only lead to more devastation and instability in Syria. Washington must also adopt a balanced approach, urging Damascus to reconsider its political direction and acknowledge Kurdish concerns regarding the centralization of power under Shara.
About the Author: Ahmad Sharawi
Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, focusing on Middle East affairs and the Levant.
Image: Mohammad Bash / Shutterstock.com.
