Just when it seemed the fate of South Korea’s presidency couldn’t get any more turbulent…it did.
In a period of just a few days, two former presidents of South Korea were indicted, the leading presidential candidate for the upcoming special election had his criminal conviction acquittal overturned, raising doubts about his eligibility, and both the acting president and “acting acting president” resigned.
All of this comes while the country tries to negotiate relief from staggering U.S. tariffs, a growing North Korean military threat, and uncertainty over the future of its alliance with Washington.
The catalyst for most of this political mayhem was then-President Yoon Suk-yeol’s declaration of martial law last December. He claimed “anti-state forces” were plotting to overthrow the government. But the reality was that he was frustrated with the opposition party’s obstructionism in the National Assembly, where it held a majority.
Yoon was impeached for violating the constitution by sending troops to prevent the legislature from voting on his martial law declaration. In April, the Constitutional Court’s unanimous 8-0 ruling on each of the five charges was an overwhelming rebuke of Yoon’s justification for martial law as well as numerous conspiracy theories espoused by his supporters.
But beyond Yoon’s actions, South Korean politics has often been referred to as a “blood sport” since few presidents enjoy a quiet retirement. Of the thirteen South Korean presidents since the founding of the republic in 1948, only two avoided overthrow, assassination, jail, indictment, or death by suicide to prevent indictment. Of those two, one had been kidnapped by South Korea’s intelligence agency and narrowly avoided assassination while he was a political opposition leader before becoming president.
In recent days, Yoon was indicted on separate criminal charges for being “the ringleader of an insurrection,” for which he could face life imprisonment or the death penalty. Yoon’s predecessor, Moon Jae-in, was indicted for bribery in connection to his former son-in-law’s job at an airline.
In late April, Lee Jae-myung overwhelmingly won the opposition party’s nomination as a candidate for the snap presidential election on June 3, necessitated by Yoon’s removal from office. Lee won his party’s nomination with almost 90 percent of the votes, and polls show him scoring higher than all other ruling and opposition candidates combined, seemingly assuring him of becoming South Korea’s next president.
However, on May 1, South Korea’s Supreme Court overturned a lower court’s acquittal of Lee for election law violations, one of several pending cases against him. The Supreme Court’s ruling risked undermining Lee’s eligibility to run for president but was dependent on the speed of an appellate court’s deliberations, the level of penalty imposed, and the interpretation of whether the constitutional provision precluding a sitting president from being indicted also includes standing cases. However, on May 7, the Seoul High Court postponed its hearing on Lee until after the June 3 presidential election.
Amid this turmoil, acting president and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo resigned in order to run for president as either a ruling party or independent candidate. Han was previously impeached by the National Assembly, but the Supreme Court overturned that. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok (who served as second echelon acting president after Han’s impeachment and departure) also resigned prior to himself being impeached. Choi had participated in recent “economic 2+2” meetings with Minister of Trade Ahn Duk-geun, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.
All of this political upheaval throws the upcoming presidential election into disarray. Lee and the progressive opposition seemed pre-ordained for victory. While Lee has re-packaged himself as a “centrist-conservative,” there is great skepticism that he would actually stray from his previous advocacy for conciliation with China and North Korea, nationalist antagonism toward Japan, and more independence in its alliance with the United States.
As party leader, Lee actively worked to impede President Yoon’s agenda and orchestrated over twenty attempted impeachments of Yoon, his wife, administration officials, and prosecutors. Conservatives fear the consequences of Lee having control of both the executive and legislative branches.
If Lee became ineligible to run for the presidency, no other Democratic Party candidate would have his standing within the government or public support. However, they could still prevail since they also don’t have Lee’s baggage of numerous pending criminal charges of misappropriation of public funds, bribery, corruption, election law violations, and illegal remittances to North Korea.
Han Duck-soo could invigorate the ruling People Power Party’s (PPP) chances to retain the presidency. He has a distinguished four decades-long government career, serving in both conservative and progressive administrations. While the electorate is inclined to punish the PPP for its support of Yoon after his martial law declaration, Han demonstrated that he was against Yoon’s actions and had sought to bring the country together as acting president. But his chances remain a long shot.
South Korea has been roiled in recent months by intense political polarization, huge public demonstrations, and conspiracy theories amplified by partisan social media. The country’s democratic system will prevail, but the next president will face a fiercely divided populace, an economy pummeled by pressure from both the United States and China, and a threatening North Korea emboldened by its alliance with Russia.
About the Author: Bruce Klingner
Bruce Klingner is a senior research fellow for Northeast Asia in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation. Klingner’s analysis and writing about North Korea, South Korea and Japan, as well as related issues, are informed by his 20 years of service at the Central Intelligence Agency and the Defense Intelligence Agency.
Image: A. Paes / Shutterstock.com.
