Seoul’s low fertility rate poses a national security threat, as the South Korean armed forces are struggling to meet recruitment targets.
South Korea has ramped up military production and aims to become a major exporter of military hardware. However, as it ramps up its defense industry, Seoul is facing a threat far greater than an invasion from its notoriously hostile neighbor to the north.
The threat? The Asian nation now has the world’s lowest fertility rate—which as of 2022 is at 0.78, far lower than the 2.1 level required to maintain a stable population.
A Smaller Population Means a Smaller Army
This is not a new problem for Seoul, which has seen its fertility rate decline precipitously below replacement levels since 1984. However, this month, a report warned that South Korea lacks sufficient men of enlistment age for mandatory military service. According to the UK’s Guardian newspaper, citing a newly released report, South Korea’s “military has shrunk by 20 percent in the past six years,” resulting in a shortage not just of personnel in the ranks but also of career officers.
The South Korean Armed Forces have about 450,000 personnel in uniform—a significant reduction from the early 2000s, when there were approximately 690,000 troops available. By contrast, North Korea is reported to have about 1.2 million troops in its active-duty force—though the relative effectiveness of the two sides is another matter entirely.
Seoul is also contending with one of the fastest aging societies, along with Japan, a problem that is putting increased pressure on its public pension system. The shrinking population is reversing the “demographic dividend,” which allowed South Korea to become a wealthy nation. As the population ages, the country’s wealth could shrink accordingly.
South Korea hit its peak population of 51.8 million in 2020, and could shrink to 36.2 million by 2072.
The Korean Armed Forces Are Adjusting
Although Seoul has seen a reduction in the number of men in uniform, the country is adjusting by shortening service periods to maintain its military capabilities. The move has been “made possible by a military alliance with the United States and the development of a defence industry that has become a big exporter of arms,” the Guardian added.
All able-bodied South Korean men had previously been called upon to serve 36 months in the military since the de facto end of the Korean War in 1953. That service time has been reduced to 21 to 24 months, depending on the service branch.
However, the South Korean armed forces are still short of the 50,000 personnel that were “deemed adequate” to maintain their defense readiness. That included about 21,000 non-commissioned officers.
Low Fertility Rates Are a Wide-Reaching Problem
It is not just South Korea and Japan that are seeing a decline in fertility rates.
China has seen its own fertility rate fall to just 1.00, which, along with other socioeconomic and cultural factors, was largely a result of Beijing’s since-abandoned one-child policy. In 2015, Beijing instituted a two-child policy, then briefly a three-child policy in May 2021 before scrapping restrictions altogether later in the year. However, those efforts largely have proven ineffective in stimulating any desired “baby boom” in China. Just this month, Beijing announced it would provide parents an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan ($500)—a sum far below the cost of raising a child for a full year.
Other countries have experimented with child-rearing incentives as well. Earlier this year, Seoul rolled out the “Birth Support Project,” which encourages more marriages and childbirths. In addition, the Korean government also offers monthly baby allowances and tax benefits to newlyweds, as well as subsidies for treatments including IVF and egg freezing.
However, even if these efforts turn around the fertility rate, it could take a generation for South Korea to have a military as big as it had in 2020.
About the Author: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu has contributed over 3,200 published pieces to more than four dozen magazines and websites over a thirty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].
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