While Putin might not attack US or NATO satellites, he most certainly is quietly preparing the battlefield for whenever he may want to.
A co-orbital satellite is a nasty little machine. Nicknamed “Space Stalkers” (with good reason), a co-orbital satellite is tiny and fast. It closely follows sensitive satellites belonging to other countries, such as the United States, with intent to damage or destroy those systems when commanded to by the ground operators of the Space Stalkers.
These systems are dual-use in nature. During peacetime, they can be classified as “repair” satellites or simply surveillance satellites. In wartime, though, these co-orbital systems can do extreme amounts of damage.
One system in particular is giving the strategic planners at the Pentagon a high degree of indigestion. That’s Russia’s newest satellite in its low-Earth orbit (LEO) Cosmos series, which is now orbiting dangerously near a covert US government satellite. As a result, the US defense community fears that the Russians are preparing to use this Cosmos co-orbital Space Stalker in what would amount to a space “Pearl Harbor.”
The Space War Is Already Here
Russia’s Cosmos 2588 was launched on May 23 of this year and placed into a coplanar orbit with USA 338, a system that most experts believe is part of the National Reconnaissance Office’s (NRO) Crystal Constellation of KH-series electro-optical spy satellites.
According to US government officials, “the last three Russian Cosmos satellites are not moving around in orbit with occasional stops to check out another bird. Rather they are each sitting in the shadow of the Crystal Constellation.”
Russia has remained tight-lipped about the capabilities of Cosmos 2588, of course. However, it is believed that the satellite likely has a kinetic weapon onboard. This is in keeping with existing Russian anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon capabilities. Five years ago, another Russian Cosmos satellite, designated Cosmos-2543, was caught by US orbital surveillance launching a high-speed projectile in space. Later, Cosmos-2576 was identified as possessing a similar capability. One can extrapolate that the entire Cosmos satellite constellation amounts to a web of ASATs floating in orbit, precariously close to sensitive US military systems.
One more thing. We know that the Russians—as well as the Chinese—have rightly identified US satellites as being the Achilles’ heel to the global reach and dominance the US military has enjoyed since at least the end of the Cold War. Without these key systems in orbit, the US military’s ability to project power would be stymied. Losing the ability to communicate, surveil, and precisely navigate weapons and personnel across vast distances would effectively neuter the US military’s ability to operate abroad.
Multiple key weapons systems, platforms, and US military units forward-deployed rely almost exclusively on the satellite capabilities that are being targeted by Russian (and Chinese) ASATs.
America Must Prepare for a Russian Space Pearl Harbor
A Space Pearl Harbor moment would not only render the US military around the world deaf, dumb, and blind. Such an attack would delay any potential military response to it. That attack would also provide Moscow or Beijing with a massive window of opportunity in which the US military was immobilized, allowing for Russian and/or Chinese forces to conduct whatever operations they wanted against American troops.
So far, Vladimir Putin has made clear his intention not to strike NATO directly. He has refrained from direct attacks against the alliance, though he knows full well that it has been arming Ukraine to the teeth—and those weapons have killed ghastly numbers of Russian troops invading Ukraine.
The recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia have forced Putin’s hand. He can no longer hold back. But, what form will the retaliation take?
It should be obvious that Putin will smash Ukraine with scores of long-range weapons and drone attacks. He will likely even dare to decimate the culturally significant Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital and an important cultural icon for the Slavic community. But Putin clearly believes that it was American targeting that facilitated the Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia. Indeed, US satellites—including Starlink—have been used by Ukraine with wanton abandon to target and destroy Russians since the war began in 2022.
A limited, though devastating, Russian ASAT attack using these Space Stalker co-orbital satellites could be one way that Putin opts to get revenge on Washington—while at the same time possibly keeping the threshold of global war from being breached. After all, a surgical strike using co-orbital satellites could be the key for Putin to temporarily blind the Americans and their NATO partners over Ukraine, leaving a window of opportunity for Russian forces to exploit. Moreover, the Americans might deny that it happened in order to save face—though, then again, they might not.
Whatever happens, we are rapidly entering the era where either the Russian or Chinese militaries will conduct a Space Pearl Harbor. While Putin might not attack US or NATO satellites, he most certainly is quietly preparing the battlefield for whenever he may want to. And what is Washington doing about this threat? So far, not much.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
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