Unless shortfalls are rectified, Russia’s Mediterranean naval presence is unlikely to resurge anytime soon.
Russia’s naval might has certainly been put to the test over the last few years amidst the Kremlin’s Ukraine invasion. Earlier this month, NATO officials revealed a noticeable decline in Russia’s naval presence in the Mediterranean Sea. In fact, according to a NATO official, Moscow’s navy appears to be averaging only several maritime assets in the region at a time. “It is our assessment that the Russian Navy, which is already resource-constraint regarding where to place its assets, is experiencing force-generation challenges and dilemmas currently affecting their posture in the Mediterranean sea,” the representative told Defense News. To make matters worse for the Kremlin, one of its improved Kilo-class submarines was forced to retreat home to the Baltic following a mechanical failure in the Mediterranean. The Novorossiysk’s troubles represent just one of the severe issues impacting the maintenance of Moscow’s naval reach in the region.
Russia’s Naval Misfortunes
Perhaps the greatest misfortune to sweep Russia’s naval fleet since the war in Ukraine commenced back in early 2022 is the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. During the Syrian Civil War in 2018, Russia’s Navy was perhaps at its peak as the Kremlin’s foothold in the Middle East region was also developing. Moscow’s direct involvement in the Syrian Civil War made Assad’s grasp of power imperative for the Kremlin. However, as of late 2024, Moscow has lost its long-standing base in Tartus as the transitional Syrian government has terminated Russia’s presence in the region and forced a full withdrawal of its naval assets from the area. Without the Tartus base, Russia has found it challenging to maintain a robust submarine presence in the Mediterranean at all, since deployments now have to sail all the way from the Baltic to even enter the region. In discussing this dilemma, the NATO official quoted earlier also detailed that “With the loss of that port, now, for example, if they bring a Kilo-class submarine in the area, they have to bring it all the way down there from one of their northern or Baltic ports – being able to sustain operations is definitely more challenging.”
Thanks to Ukraine, the Russian Navy Is Underwater
Ukraine has also made an impressive dent in Russia’s naval fleet since the war began. According to Kyiv’s Navy spokesman, Dmytro Pletenchuk, Russia’s amphibious landing ship resting at the dock in Sevastopol was heavily bombarded in a strike last year. Ukraine’s arsenal of sea drones, capable missiles, and other unconventional tactics has aided the nation’s defensive efforts against Russia. Also in 2024, a secretive unit of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency carried out an operation, striking the Sergey Kotov warship. The specialized unmanned aerial vehicle behind the attack was the Magura V5. This small motorboat may not appear to be special from afar, but it can pack a hefty punch when deployed.
Unless shortfalls, including maintenance issues and regional foothold gaps, are rectified, Moscow’s Mediterranean presence is unlikely to face a resurgence anytime soon.
About the Author: Maya Carlin
Maya Carlin, National Security Writer with The National Interest, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has bylines in many publications, including The National Interest, The Jerusalem Post, and The Times of Israel. You can follow her on Twitter: @MayaCarlin.
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