Pokrovsk is a key logistics hub in the Donbas, supporting offensive and defensive operations.
The Ukrainian military continues to hold on to the town of Pokrovsk in the face of determined Russian attacks.
The Russian military has been trying to capture Pokrovsk for a long time, and at the cost of tens of thousands of casualties. Now, after almost two years of intense fighting, the Russian forces are close to achieving that goal. Russian president Vladimir Putin has even given them a deadline of mid-November, just a few days away. But the fall of Pokrovsk might not be as near as the Kremlin wants.
A Slow Rate of Advance
The Russian high command is currently pursuing offensive operations in at least seven different directions in northeastern, eastern, and southern Ukraine. Some of the offensives are supporting one another. However, several are independent. This division of forces and resources does not allow the Russian forces to achieve decisive victories on the ground.
“The rate of Russian advances in the Pokrovsk direction remains relatively slow, likely in part because the Russian military command continues to pursue grinding offensive operations throughout the theater,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest operational estimate of the conflict.
The Russian forces are struggling to close the pocket they have been creating and trap the Ukrainian garrison inside. There is fierce street-to-street fighting. The Ukrainians will likely pull out the majority of their forces when they determine that further defense is futile and the town is about to be surrounded.
Pokrovsk is a key logistics hub in the Donbas, supporting both offensive and defensive operations. The Russian military has been trying to capture the town for months as a way to weaken the Ukrainian fortress belt in the Donbas. The likely capture of Pokrovsk by the Russian military will hinder Ukrainian defensive efforts in the region.
Time and Casualties
A slower rate of advance, however, does not mean that the Russian forces will not be able to capture Pokrovsk. Rather, it is likely going to take them more time and casualties.
“Russian forces will very likely seize Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad [a neighboring town], but will likely take more time and suffer more casualties to do so than if the Russian military command focused more resources from elsewhere on the front in this direction,” the Institute for the Study of War added.
A think tank based in Washington, DC, the Institute for the Study of War has been providing timely and accurate analysis of the tactical, operational, and strategic moves of the two combatants in the conflict.
Urban combat favors the defender. The Ukrainians have become masters of defensive warfare, fortifying towns and making the Russians pay a very heavy price for capturing them. And yet the Russian military has remarkable force generation capabilities and can sustain a very high level of attrition. To this day, the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces have suffered approximately 1.2 million casualties killed and wounded. Last year alone, Russia lost around 420,000 men. Although this year Russian casualty numbers will very likely not reach such levels, Moscow is heading to lose nearly 400,000 men.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
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