“Should these casualty rates persist for the rest of 2025, this would be the costliest year of the war in terms of Russian personnel,” the British Ministry of Defence stated.
The Russian forces are nearing the 1 million casualty mark with alarming speed. If the current pace continues, the Russian military and its supporting forces will exceed 1 million casualties by the first days of June.
Russia Is Approaching One Million Casualties in Ukraine
Over the weekend, the British Ministry of Defence assessed in an intelligence report that the Russian forces have “likely incurred approximately 950,000 casualties (killed and wounded) since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.”
The term “Russian forces” includes the Russian military, paramilitary units such as the Wagner Group, North Korean troops, and pro-Russian separatist rebels that are fighting alongside the Russian regular army. These rebels are mainly found in the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces and have been an integral part of the Kremlin’s claim over Ukrainian territory since the beginning of their rebellion in 2014. For the first eight years of the conflict, the Russian military directly and indirectly supported the insurrection against Kyiv; when Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, these pro-Russian separatists joined the Russian forces.
In 2024, the Russian forces suffered over 400,000 casualties. In the first four months of 2025, Moscow has already taken approximately 160,000 casualties, according to Ukrainian and British estimates. For the sake of comparison, the initial Russian invasion force numbered around 190,000 men. However, more than three years later, Moscow has roughly five times its initial force present in Ukraine.
“Should these casualty rates persist for the rest of 2025, this would be the costliest year of the war in terms of Russian personnel, continuing the year-on-year trend of casualty increases,” the British Ministry of Defence added in its intelligence estimate.
After a Lull in Fighting, Escalation Continues
April proved to be particularly deadly for the Russian forces despite a drop in the intensity of the fighting. Specifically, the Russian forces took approximately 36,000 casualties killed and wounded in April, with a daily average casualty rate of over 1,200. Although significant, this was a drop from March’s daily average casualty rate of 1,300. In previous months, the Russian forces have even reached daily average casualty rates of over 1,600.
“Whilst the numbers of casualties remain below the very high rates of nearly 1,600 in late 2024, when Russia was making territorial gains, it is still towards the high end in the overall context of the conflict,” the British Ministry of Defence stated.
However, despite taking over 160,000 losses in the course of four months, the Russian military has failed to translate these heavy casualties into significant territorial advances as it did in the closing months of 2024.
If this situation persists into May and in the summer, it could become a significant problem for Moscow. The Kremlin’s attritional strategy hinges on the exchange of men for territory. Thus far, the exchange has been satisfactory, with the Russian forces capturing thousands of square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in 2024 and replacing its losses through volunteer recruitment inside Russia. But if the territorial gains cease but the high casualties continue, the pressure will be on the Kremlin’s leadership to find a solution by other means.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
Image: Shutterstock / FotoDax.
