Introducing the Shahed-238/Geran-3 drone has fundamentally altered the course of the Ukraine War in Russia’s favor.
Russia continues to prove it is a military dynamo in the ongoing Ukraine War. Using innovative systems and tactics to defeat the Ukrainians, the Russians have come to rely upon systems built by their partners, such as Iran’s Shahed-238 jet-powered unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV).
Originally a low-cost, propeller-driven kamikaze drone, the Shahed-136 has been a cornerstone of Russia’s long-range strike campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure since its debut in September 2022. However, the drone has also been vulnerable to Ukraine’s lower-end air defense systems, such as ground fire. As a step forward, Iran unveiled a jet-powered variant in late 2023—the Shahed-238, which Russia has adapted into its own Geran-3 model, equipped with a domestic Tolou-10/13 turbofan engine.
What is the Shahed-238 Drone?
The Shahed-238 drone represents a major upgrade over its propeller-driven predecessor. The original Shahed-136 is powered by a 50-horsepower Mado MD550 piston engine; as a result, it travels much slower, has a smaller operational range, and is far more vulnerable to air defenses than its jet-powered successor, the Shahed-238. Because the Shahed-238 is jet-powered, its speed is significantly faster—and more challenging for the Ukrainians to intercept.
The Shahed-238 maintains the same delta-wing configuration as its predecessor, but it features a modified rear section with an air intake for the turbofan engine and a black paint scheme, possibly to impair visual detection during night operations.
The Shahed-238/Geran-3 comes in three sub-variants with distinct guidance systems. One uses inertial navigation (INS) with GPS/GLONASS for preprogrammed targets, another incorporates an electro-optical/infrared seeker for targeting “hot” objects such as vehicles, and a third employs a radar-homing seeker to attack air defense systems. These enhancements improve precision and versatility, allowing the drone to engage both static and dynamic targets. Russia has further enhanced the Iranian Shahed-238 jet-powered drone by integrating Chinese-made components, such as an eight-channel CRP satellite navigation antenna and a Beijing Microelectronics microchip, replacing Western parts like the XILINX Kintex-7 chip to evade sanctions.
Introducing the Shahed-238/Geran-3 has fundamentally altered the course of the Ukraine War in Russia’s favor. Russia has launched 15,011 Shahed-class drones over the last year at Ukraine. It is uncertain how many of them hit their targets, but those that did caused immense damage.
The most significant effect has been on Ukraine’s air defense grid. The jet-powered variant’s higher speed and altitude—compared to the Shahed-136’s low-and-slow profile—complicates interception by short-range air defenses like anti-aircraft guns and MANPADS, which rely on visual or acoustic cues. Ukrainian forces have achieved an 80-83 percent interception rate against propeller-driven Shaheds using layered defenses, including networked acoustic sensors and electronic warfare. But the Shahed-238’s speed aligns it closer to a cruise missile, requiring Ukraine to expend costly interceptors from advanced systems like the Patriot—priced at $4 million each, thus straining Ukraine’s resources and inevitably causing it to let other missiles, including much more dangerous ones, through.
What Does the Shahed-238 Do for Russia?
Russia’s production of the Geran-3, centered at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, reflects a strategic shift toward self-reliance. With Iranian assistance, Russia has scaled production to 440 drones per month in 2024, with plans for 6,000 Shahed-136/Geran-2 units by 2025.
The jet-powered variant, while far more expensive than the propellor variant—estimated at $150,000 per unit, compared to roughly $50,000 for a Shahed-136—remains cheaper than cruise missiles, enabling Russia to sustain high-volume attacks. Moreover, the use of decoy drones like the Gerbera, produced at 50 units per day, further complicates Ukrainian defenses by overwhelming radar and missile stocks.
The Shahed-238’s deployment also underscores the deepening Russo-Iranian defense partnership. Iran’s reverse-engineering expertise and Russia’s access to Chinese components have circumvented Western sanctions, highlighting vulnerabilities in global supply chains. The drone’s use of commercial-grade electronics, such as Texas Instruments processors and Chinese microchips, raises concerns about the proliferation of dual-use technologies.
What Happens When Russia Turns the Drone Against NATO?
Iran’s development of the jet-powered Shahed-238 development reflects a broader trend in drone warfare: the convergence of low-cost, expendable systems with advanced capabilities. Russia’s adoption of the Shahed-238 signals a shift toward faster, more lethal loitering munitions, challenging traditional air defense paradigms.
The drone’s use in Ukraine serves as a testing ground for Iran and Russia, with lessons like informing future designs. China’s development of a jet-powered Shahed analog, announced in 2023, suggests further proliferation, potentially destabilizing regions like the Middle East, where Shahed drones have already been used by Houthi rebels in the 2019 attack against the Abqaiq oil facility in Saudi Arabia.
For NATO and its allies, the Shahed-238 marks a significant evolution in loitering munitions, combining speed, enhanced payloads, and versatile guidance systems to challenge Ukrainian defenses. While its higher cost and thermal signature present vulnerabilities. Its affordability relative to the cost of cruise missiles and integration with decoy drones amplify its strategic impact.
And that impact is significant. This Iranian-Russian-Chinese system is a real threat to NATO, and an indicator of how dangerous the Iranian-Russian-Chinese alliance is becoming for the West.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Anelo.
