The S-400s, which have essentially remained untouched since 2017, could allow Russia to quickly replace missile batteries destroyed in Ukraine—and restore Turkey to the F-35 fighter program.
Reports circulated over the weekend that Russia had approached Turkey with an offer to buy back the S-400 Triumf air defense system. According to the Turkish language Nefres newspaper, the Kremlin has reportedly seen multiple of its own S-400s destroyed during the conflict in Ukraine and has sought to purchase the two systems sold to Turkey, which have not yet been put into active service due to political considerations.
Turkey is building a domestically-produced “Çelik Kubbe,” or “Steel Dome,” for which the Russian S-400 system could be vital. At the same time, however, it is no secret that Ankara’s adoption of the Russian-made air defense system has strained its relations with NATO and the United States.
After adopting the S-400 during President Donald Trump’s first term, Turkey was expelled from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program under the “Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act” (CAATS). Washington and NATO leadership have argued that the two platforms are not compatible, and that Turkey’s adoption of the missile system would compromise the security of the fifth-generation stealth fighter.
Russia Needs More S-400 Systems in Ukraine
Almost immediately after Turkey purchased the S-400 systems in 2017, there were signs of second thoughts from Ankara. Of note, although they own the S-400s, the Turkish Armed Forces have so far refrained from actually activating them—a clear sign of a break between Turkey and the United States.
In the eight years since the purchase, Turkey has continued to express interest in the F-35 fighter, and there has been considerable speculation that the nation could rejoin the F-35 program if it were to get rid of its S-400s—either through a military sale to another nation, such as India or Pakistan, or by donating it to Ukraine. The idea has even circulated that Turkey could give the systems to the United States for reverse-engineering, although this does not appear likely.
So far, none of these plans have materialized. One issue is that any transfer of the systems would legally require approval from Moscow, which is highly unlikely to agree to a transfer to Ukraine or the United States. Similarly, prior to the invasion of Ukraine, a sale to a third party would have hindered Russia’s own attempts to export its own S-400 systems.
However, the Kremlin’s forces have seen several S-400s destroyed in the ongoing war in Ukraine, and Russia must replenish its own inventory while ensuring its exports aren’t delayed further. Moscow has already been forced to postpone the transfer of an S-400 battery to India, and current plans call for the systems to arrive no earlier than late 2026 or early 2027.
According to Defense Mirror, the Russian military currently has no spare S-400s. Buying the Turkish S-400s, which have essentially remained in a warehouse since their arrival in Turkey in 2017, could allow Russia to quickly rearm its forces.
How Likely Is a Russia-Turkey S-400 Deal, Really?
A source in the Turkish government told RIA Novosti on Monday that such claims that Ankara would return or sell the S-400 batteries to Russia are unfounded.
“Where did you get these reports? There is no such situation,” the source told the Russian news agency. The Turkish Defense Ministry has not commented on the reports.
Turkey has retained ties with Russia, yet the final issue may come to money.
Turkey spent $2.5 billion on the S-400 Triumf batteries in 2017 after failing to acquire the US-made MIM-104 Patriot air defense system. Even as they sit in storage, regular maintenance is required, adding costs to the acquisition. The first S-400 systems arrived in July 2019, and at the time, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had announced the Triumf would be fully operational by April 2020. Now, nearly five and a half years later, the S-400 has simply driven a wedge between Washington and Ankara—and is not even operational. Erdogan might be forgiven for wishing to wash his hands of the systems.
About the Author: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu has contributed over 3,200 published pieces to more than four dozen magazines and websites over a 30-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a contributing writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].
Image: Shutterstock / Karasev Viktor.
