In any future conflict with Russia, NATO will face an acute artillery shortage—as demonstrated in Ukraine, where Western production has been insufficient to meet Kyiv’s battlefield needs.
European defense manufacturer Rheinmetall has broken ground on a large 155mm artillery shell factory near Baisogala, Lithuania. This is important for two reasons. The first is because it shows that the Europeans are desperately trying to live up to their claims that they are rearming in order to pull their weight in the NATO alliance. The second reason redounds to the fact that the Russians are perceived as being once again a threat to NATO in Europe.
By building a new weapons factory in a region near where Russian forces are currently operating—a factory dedicated to the production of much needed artillery shells—Rheinmetall (and, by extension, NATO) hopes to prove to their ambivalent American allies they are in the fight for the long haul.
Why Is Germany Building Its Shells in Lithuania?
The project is believed to cost around €260–300 million. The plant will produce tens of thousands of 155mm shells per year, once up and running—anticipated by the second half of 2026. It will be run by Rheinmetall Defense Lietuva, with Rheinmetall taking a 51 percent stake and Lithuanian partners, including EPSO-G Invest, holding the rest. Around 150 jobs will be created locally by the site and local infrastructure, and suppliers will benefit mightily from the continual demand the factory has for production materials and other support.
Lithuania wants to build a domestic defense-industry base on NATO’s eastern flank and reduce dependence on distant suppliers. This is in keeping with a general trend globally of countries desiring to indigenize their critical defense supply chains as much as possible.
For Rheinmetall, this expands production capacity in Europe to meet increased demand for artillery ammunition (driven in large part by the war in Ukraine and broader NATO rearmament).
The project is presented as strengthening NATO logistics and deterrence in the Baltics.
Lithuania has heavily backed the project through partnership arrangements and state involvement, including planned bond and state-guarantee measures. A memorandum has been signed to explore propellant production and a center of excellence to supply charges and propellant modules, too.
So, the artillery shells, while key for near-term needs, are just the beginning for Lithuania’s defense industry.
Understanding NATO’s (and Ukraine’s) Artillery Crisis
As for the artillery question, this factory cannot come soon enough (and, while helpful, will be wholly insufficient to match the fearsome power of the Russian industrial war machine). For instance, in nearby Ukraine, Kyiv’s forces are firing very large numbers of artillery every day to stave off the Russians, who are steadily gaining ground as the Ukrainians deplete their manpower and weapons.
Meanwhile, European and American production of compatible ammunition—notably the 155mm NATO caliber—is far lower than demand. Ukraine is blowing through its 155mm artillery (along with every other weapon) faster than NATO can resupply it.
Ukraine is also still heavily reliant on older Soviet-era systems (122mm, 152mm). These require ammunition from sources and supply chains that are constrained. At the same time, however, Western allies continue supplying NATO-standard equipment (like the 155mm shell), so Ukraine is dealing with both a transition in systems (requiring new levels of training) and ammunition supply pressure.
Western munitions industries had been running at relatively low production rates for large-caliber shells prior to the war and had to ramp up quickly. Propellant powder, explosives, and specific manufacturing lines are the bottlenecks for Western production of key components for the 155mm shells. For instance, Euromaidan Press discusses how gunpowder shortages are hindering Europe’s ability to produce shells fast enough.
As a result, some orders take extremely long to complete. Delivery wait-times for large-caliber ammunition are stretched from 12 months to as much as 28 months in some cases.
NATO Is Preparing for a Wider War with Russia
The Ukraine War has shown the world how the Russians will fight NATO, if it ever comes to that (though I remain skeptical that Moscow has any intention whatsoever to directly fight NATO). Such a war will rely heavily on artillery. And the Russian military industrial base is primed for supporting such a war with the mass production of heavy artillery shells. The Lithuania production site will be instrumental in boosting NATO’s production capacity.
Until then, NATO continues pooling orders, sourcing from non-traditional suppliers, and increasing budget and investment in munitions production capacity to offset whatever advantages the Russians have. But these procurement gimmicks will not stop the Russian onslaught. Indeed, at present, there does not appear to be much of anything that can—even the Lithuania plant will be wholly insufficient to rebuff the gains the Russians have made.
Still, Rheinmetall has the right idea. It just might be too little, too late.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, and the Asia Times. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Gal_Rotem.
