While the eyes of the world were fixed on the Middle East and the recent war between Israel and Iran, the Russians launched another major offensive against the embattled Ukrainians. Moscow is jockeying for the best position over Kyiv, anticipating that, sooner or later, the West will be forced to seek a negotiated settlement.
Until Washington and Brussels are prepared to do that, President Vladimir Putin will continue maneuvering his forces into the most fortuitous, strategic positions in Ukraine. And, should the West fail to come to the table in a useful timeline, Moscow will have annexed what it wanted of Ukraine, and the Russians will have won the war regardless.
Trump Was Elected on a Promise of Peace—but Got Distracted
When he was reelected in November 2024 as president of the United States, Donald Trump made a big show of insisting one of his first moves on the international stage was to seek a peace deal with Russia over Ukraine. Nearly seven months into his second term, however, Trump appears to have abandoned negotiating with Russia over Ukraine.
The reason is not because Trump is prepared to let the Russians do what they are going to do anyway, so that he can focus on better bilateral ties with Russia. It has been because Trump got hung up on the notion of an advantageous minerals deal with Ukraine.
During the transition from the Biden administration to the second Trump administration, neoconservative Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC) propagated a proposal for the United States to gain access to rare earth minerals in eastern Ukraine. As I wrote at the time, Graham’s proposal was primarily intended as a poison pill designed to prevent a real peace deal from being brokered. It called for the United States to extract from Kyiv prominent access to Ukraine’s bountiful natural resources as repayment for the years of expensive American aid to Ukraine.
Graham’s proposal was perfectly programmed for Trump. Here was a man who lamented the Iraq War primarily because the United States failed to “take” Iraq’s oil as remuneration for its invasion. Trump had campaigned for years on the idea that American leaders were “suckers,” and they needed a new kind of leader—Trump—to show them the hardboiled “art of the deal.”
The end result? Rather than staying focused on an immediate peace deal to end the war, Trump went down a rabbit hole. He became involved in securing mineral rights for after the war, rather than just ending the war and worrying about mineral rights thereafter. In doing so, valuable time was lost.
Ukraine’s Art of the Non-Deal
This is because, at least in part, Ukraine was never serious about such a deal. Not only did Kyiv view the deal as an affront to its sovereignty—who would want to willingly surrender one’s natural resources to a foreign power, no matter how helpful it has been?—but it also understood that many of the minerals Trump sought were in Russian hands to begin with.
Beyond that, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy had used the mineral deal as bait to hook the British and French. In other words, the minerals Trump coveted were not in direct control of Ukraine—and even if they were, Ukraine had already promised much of them to the British and French.
Ironically, one of the few mineral deposits in Ukraine that was not under Russian control was the lithium mines to the east of the Ukrainian village of Shevchenko in the Donetsk region, along the border with the Dnipropetrovosk Region of Ukraine. This is along the main axis of fighting in the war today, and the Russians have been advancing there—slowly, yet methodically and (apparently) irreversibly.
Had Trump eschewed Graham’s proposal about taking mineral rights from Ukraine, the fighting would likely have been paused months ago, and a real deal could have been made with Russia to stop the killing. Instead, the war has continued as Trump has clung onto the hope for dominating the resource wealth of Ukraine.
But the Russians are methodically taking what they want while the peace process is dead. Before long, Trump will be left with nothing to bargain over, and Moscow will take what it wants—regardless of what the West says about the matter.
Here is yet another reason why Trump needs to stop listening to Graham and his allies. They never wanted peace in Ukraine to begin with. The mythical resource non-deal was always intended to kill the peace process, and it appears to have done just that.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Denis873.
