Trump will probably have his war. But at what cost? And will it be as limited as he seems to think it will be?
Shortly after his surprising announcement that he would take two weeks before deciding whether or not to attack Iran, President Donald Trump appears to be laying the groundwork for such a strike. Within the last week, Trump quietly ordered the movement of the US Air Force’s key B-2 Spirit bombers from California into the Pacific. Their final destination is not yet known, but is almost certainly the US airbase at Diego Garcia, America’s military redoubt in the Indian Ocean that lies within striking distance of Iran.
The B-2 Spirit long-range stealth bomber is the best plane in the American arsenal for deploying GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) gravity bombs. These bombs can supposedly collapse the hardened bunkers of Iran’s Fordow nuclear enrichment facility.
While Israel has enjoyed a smashing success in overcoming Iran’s advanced air defenses and managing to repeatedly strike suspected nuclear weapons development facilities with 3,000 and 5,000-pound bunker busting bombs, it has been apparently unable to destroy hardened facilities such as Fordow. And with Iran’s military slowly restoring its fight capabilities after the initial Israeli airstrikes left it dazed and confused, Israeli war planners rightly fear that they will soon be unable to reliably penetrate Iranian airspace and continue striking the hardened Iranian nuclear weapons sites. The Israelis will need the Americans to do this for them.
America Is on Track to Attack Iran
Despite President Trump saying that he was planning to give diplomacy a chance, after days of serious backlash from prominent MAGA influencers, his actions do not seem to match his rhetoric. It is a well-accepted principle by now that only Trump knows what Trump is doing; his dovish rhetoric may simply be a distraction designed to lull the Iranians into another sense of false security, just as Trump’s prewar negotiations did. Or he may simply change his mind at the last moment.
Whatever the case, Trump is ensuring that he has options. The president has moved the bulk of America’s midair refueling tankers into the Middle East, as well as massive numbers of warplanes. Now, he is positioning an unusual number of warships into the area. Flight radar tracker data showed yesterday that two groups of midair refuelers deployed from California heading in the direction of Diego Garcia. Based on their callsigns, internet sleuths have asserted that these planes will be used to support either B-2 bombers or the B-52H Stratofortress long-range bombers already stationed at the base.
While nothing has been confirmed officially, it is likely that Trump, if he decides to initiate an airstrike against Iran directly, would prefer to use the B-2—both because of its stealth features, giving Tehran greater trouble in shooting it down, and because it can carry the 30,000-pound bombs needed to annihilate the Fordow enrichment facility.
One insider source told this author that the B-2s are likely flying with the tankers leaving California. Another indicated that these B-2s were the same B-2s that Trump had originally deployed to Diego Garcia a couple of months ago, before withdrawing them amid nuclear talks.
The B-2s, traditionally based out of Whitman Air Force Base in America’s Heartland, were not at Whitman when these planes were likely moved with the refueling tankers. They had been pre-positioned in California upon returning from Diego Garcia last month. By keeping the birds in California, Trump kept them slightly nearer to Diego Garcia, meaning that they could be on-site in the Mideast sooner rather than later.
A Strike on Iran Could Come As Early As This Weekend
Noted investigative reporter Seymour Hersh has claimed on his Substack page that Trump intends to strike Iran this weekend, when the markets are closed and will have some time to process the attacks before reopening on Monday.
If the president is planning to strike using the B-2s—or even the B-52s already present at Diego Garcia—these bombers will need to be escorted by F/A-18 E/F Super Hornets and E/A-18G Growlers. These are two classes of US Navy birds that deploy from aircraft carriers.
The USS Nimitz is believed to be underway and steaming toward the Middle East. Most assume she will be on-site either Saturday or Sunday. In other words, the strikes could not possibly happen until this weekend, because whichever bombers are used will inevitably require the escort of Navy planes that will not be within range until this weekend.
Then there’s the presence of all the refueler planes arrayed throughout the region, as well as the introduction of F-22A Raptors and F-35 Lightning II fifth-generation warplanes into the region, for precise reasons as yet unknown.
America’s Order of Battle During an Iran Strike
The precise details of America’s planned strike on Iran will remain highly classified (and, one hopes, off of Signal). Yet the broad outline of such a strike is likely to go as follows.
America’s B-2s, escorted by the Super Hornets and Growlers, will fly into Iran from Diego Garcia. The Growlers will conduct sweeping electronic disruption attacks against the Iranian air defense networks. Meanwhile, the Super Hornets will cover the bombers from any potential enemy fighters or from incoming air defense fire.
Floating just across the border from Iran in Saudi Arabia or Iraq, pickets of F-22s and F-35s will be shadowing the B-2s, preparing to enter the fray if they encounter heavier-than-expected resistance.
Once in Iran’s airspace, the B-2s will proceed to Fordow and drop their GBU-57 MOP bombs. Once dropped, the B-2s will high-tail it out of the contested Iranian airspace, moving swiftly northward toward the Mediterranean. At some point, these planes will be topped off by US refuelers positioned throughout the region, as the B-2s make their way back to Whitman Air Force Base in the United States via the European air route.
This is likely how it will go down this weekend. Trump will probably have his war. But at what cost? And will it be as limited as he seems to think it will be?
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Wikimedia Commons.
