It is far from certain that Russia is behind a string of recent sabotage incidents affecting Poland’s railway lines and power grid.
On November 16, a blast damaged a section of the rail line between Warsaw, Poland, and Lublin (near the village of Mika). This line is a strategically significant line as it serves freight and aid deliveries toward Ukraine. According to the Polish government, this was not an accident.
It was, in the Warsaw government’s words, “an act of sabotage” involving an explosive device being laid on the tracks, thereby damaging it.
What to Know About the Recent Sabotage Incidents in Poland
For their part, Russian intelligence is accusing the Europeans of engaging in a false flag attempt. In either event, this thing seems perfectly timed to implode whatever semblance of peace remains on the wider European continent, thereby expanding the Ukraine War, at a time when that conflict’s end seems in sight.
In a second suspected sabotage incident, power lines along the same railway corridor—near Pulawy, around 50 km from Lublin—were destroyed, with a metal device found on the nearby tracks. No injuries were reported. Traffic on the parallel track was maintained while investigations and repair efforts to restore this critical rail line are underway.
Sir Halford Mackinder would certainly be interested in these developments if he were alive today!
Here’s where things get interesting, though. The two individuals the Polish authorities arrested in conjunction with the sabotage are Ukrainians. It is believed they entered Poland from neighboring Belarus.
For its part, Kyiv insists that the sabotage was conducted on behalf of Moscow—but it should be noted that both Russia and Ukraine have a troubling history of arranging false flag attacks in order to achieve their objectives.
Poland Doesn’t Know Who Is Responsible for the Sabotage
So, while Russia has a motive to attack the rail line in order to disrupt the flow of critical goods entering Ukraine from nearby Poland, Ukraine has a vested interest in militating Poland against Russia even more than they already are. After all, Ukraine is clearly losing the war. What’s more, the country is running out of money—one reason why Kyiv is desperate for Europe to transfer the $140 billion in seized assets to its control.
But if a greater conflict could be triggered in which NATO does more than simply provide logistical and intelligence support to Ukraine, Kyiv thinks its national survival would be assured.
Warsaw believes it was Russia and, as such, is inspecting around 120 kilometers of track between the incident site and the Ukrainian border. This is a wise precaution.
Still, it is obvious that one of the parties to the Ukraine War is attempting to provoke Poland (and, by extension, NATO) into a larger war. Thus, the best course of action for Poland and NATO would be to not take the bait. Even if Russia was known to be behind the attack, nothing is served by militating more against Moscow. Poland must focus on enhancing its domestic defenses without falling into the trap of triggering a wider war.
The identities of the two arrested Ukrainians have not yet been fully disclosed by the Polish authorities. Little is known about them and their reasons for conducting the sabotage. Beyond that, Polish authorities have not indicated as to whether they know these two Ukrainians acted independently or under orders.
Avoiding World War III Must Be the Goal
Things are getting dicey on the continent. Warsaw is justified in being angry—and must take defensive steps to prevent similar attacks from happening. But Polish leaders must avoid giving into the desire to escalate. Such a move could easily trigger a larger NATO response, which, in turn, will trigger a third world war.
Avoiding that outcome, regardless of who is responsible, must be the West’s lodestar under present conditions.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest. Recently, Weichert became the host of The National Security Hour on America Outloud News and iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. Weichert hosts a companion book talk series on Rumble entitled “National Security Talk.” He is also a contributor at Popular Mechanics and has consulted regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including The Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, and the Asia Times. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Aleksandra Budnik.
