Despite agreement from Ukraine, European nations remain largely skeptical of the proposal.
The war in Ukraine is at a crucial point. Negotiations among Ukraine, the United States, Russia, NATO, and the European Union are taking place with the goal of ending the costliest conflict in Europe since World War II.
A 19-Point Plan to End the Ukraine War
The White House initially presented Ukraine with a proposed 28-point peace plan. The plan, however, was controversial as it reportedly repeated Russia’s demands. Ukraine and its European allies pushed back. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom are rejecting a peace plan that does not include Ukraine at the table. A European counterproposal narrowed down the peace plan to 19 points. And now there seems to be an agreement between Ukraine and the United States.
“Our delegations reached a common understanding on the core terms of the agreement discussed in Geneva,” Ukrainian secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Rustem Umerov said on X on Tuesday.
Once there is complete agreement between Ukraine and the United States, the plan must be approved by Europe regarding any points concerning Kyiv’s relationship with the European Union and other related issues. The Europeans are particularly concerned with an immediate ceasefire to precede any agreements about territory, the Ukrainian military to be able to have more than 800,000 troops during wartime, and Ukraine to receive a security guarantee from the United States similar to NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause.
“We now count on the support of our European partners in our further steps,” the Ukrainian national security official added.
Of course, after Ukraine accepts the peace proposal, Russia must accept, too. And the Kremlin will not be as pressured to accept a peace plan it does not find favorable as Ukraine. A weak peace agreement will only continue the war.
The Fighting Goes on in Ukraine
Meanwhile, on the ground, the intense fighting continues between the Ukrainian and Russian forces. The Russian military is in Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub in the Donetsk Oblast.
But the Ukrainian forces maintain a limited presence in the city and launch regular counterattacks within Pokrovsk. Although the Russian forces are now in the city, it is likely that it will be some time before they completely control Pokrovsk. Nevertheless, the loss of the city is a blow to the Ukrainian offensive and defensive efforts in the Donbas.
But the loss of Pokrovsk does not mean that the Russian military is close to achieving its objectives.
“ISW continues to assess that the Russian effort to seize Donetsk Oblast will be a yearslong battle that would cost Russia significant amounts of manpower and materiel,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest operational estimate of the conflict.
Indeed, the Russian military has not displayed a maneuver warfare capability necessary to seize large population centers rapidly. Although Pokrovsk is likely to fall to Russian hands in the next weeks, it took Moscow over a year to enter the city.
Russian efforts to seize the Donbas started in 2014, years before the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. And yet, the Russian military has failed to produce quick results. This military inability is very likely a significant consideration under the negotiated peace plan.
About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
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