New York’s Child Services Says It’s Saving Lives—Count Us Skeptical

Jess Dannhauser, commissioner of the New York City Administration for Children’s Services (ACS) is doing a bang-up job—at least according to his defenders. In a recent article, “Why New York’s child welfare system is in capable hands under Commissioner Jess Dannhauser,” Sr. Paulette LoMonaco, former executive director of Good Shepherd Services, and Bill Baccaglini, CEO of the New York Foundling, wrote that, under Dannhauser, “we have witnessed a dramatic improvement in the quality of practice.”

But those working with ACS on the front lines are less impressed. As reported in the New York Post, insiders say the agency is now prioritizing efforts to keep families together and reducing the disproportionate number of black children in foster care, over ensuring those children’s safety. Meanwhile, there is little focus on the fact that black children account for 68 percent of reviewed fatalities in families “known to ACS.”

That mismatch between hype and reality is typical of child services administrators across the nation. Like others, Dannhauser is looking to bring down both interventions and harms. But the statistics Dannhauser’s defenders—and the commissioner—trot out to support this approach have more than a few holes in them.

LoMonaco and Baccaglini insist that “the data” support their effusive claims. They point, for instance, to a “20% reduction over the last five years in the number of children being subsequently abused or neglected after an ACS intervention.”

In reality, this reduction—in the number of children with an “indicated” CPS investigation who have another indicated investigation within one year—coincides with the expansion of the CARES program. CARES is a family assessment alternative to a CPS investigation that cannot lead to families being “indicated” for maltreatment.

January 2022 saw the enactment of a law that raised the evidentiary standard for indicating a CPS case. Either of these policy changes could explain the purported improvement in child safety—and those claiming deep expertise in the city’s system should know that.

Dannhauser, for his part, suggests that his leadership is driving these improvements. In a recent defense of ACS’s performance in the Post, he notes that “our administration’s strategies have led to an 18% decline in child fatalities in families known to ACS, compared to the prior decade.”

Count us skeptical. According to an email we received from the ACS communications office, the 18 percent decline is based on the average number of fatalities from 2012–2021 compared with the average from 2022–2024. Notably, there was a sharp drop between 2021 (53 deaths) and 2022 (39 deaths), coinciding with Dannhauser’s arrival. But preliminary ACS data show a sizable increase in 2023 and 2024—precisely the years when Dannhauser’s policies would be expected to take effect.

Numbers can mislead. In examining similar claims from New Jersey last year, we wrote that the state “has drastically reduced the number of children it identifies as victims and places in foster care without either reducing the number of children that community members suspect are being victimized or increasing the number of children served in their familial homes.” What may look like an improvement in safety could instead reflect a bureaucracy burying its head in the sand—or worse, trying to deceive the public.

What has actually changed with ACS child fatalities? The number of fatalities reviewed by ACS has dropped significantly, but it’s not entirely clear why. In 2021, the agency reviewed 102 child fatalities, 52 percent of which were “known to ACS” (meaning the family had prior contact with ACS). In 2022—the most recent year for which fatality review data have been released—ACS reviewed only 74 deaths, with 53 percent “known to ACS.” (More than 100 fatalities were reviewed in 2018 and 2019 as well, so 2021 wasn’t an outlier.) If fewer deaths get reviewed, it’s hardly surprising that fewer will be linked to ACS involvement.

Why were fewer deaths reviewed in 2022? One possibility is a decline in the child population. Fewer children mean fewer overall deaths, even if the fatality rate remains unchanged. New York City’s child population fell by 17 percent between 2020 and 2023 alone. That could help explain some of the difference Dannhauser cites between his administration and the previous decade.

It’s also possible that the overall death rate among children (including those known to ACS, as well as other fatalities) declined. But that doesn’t seem to be the case. Total infant mortality in New York City (both the number of deaths and the rate) declined from 2015 to 2020, but rose in 2021 and again in 2022. The total deaths of city children one to 14 years old fluctuated but was higher in 2022 than any year since 2015, other than 2019. How did ACS review fewer deaths, while child deaths rose from 2021 to 2022?

Another relevant practice: ACS guidance introduced at the end of 2020 discourages the reporting of substance-exposed infants to the State Central Register of Child Abuse and Maltreatment. Substance-exposed infants die at disproportionately high rates under ambiguous circumstances, such as Sudden Unexpected Infant Death (SUID) or sleep-related accidents. Yet under current ACS guidance, these infants are less likely to have an open case or prior allegation before their death. As a result, the likelihood that their deaths get classified as “known to ACS” has likely declined.

It’s not only ACS practices that appear to have changed—the medical examiner’s office has, too. To address staffing shortages, new guidance reportedly gives medical examiners more discretion in deciding whether an autopsy is necessary. If fewer autopsies are conducted, that could mean fewer red flags for child maltreatment fatalities. A recent Times Union investigation found that many of the child fatality reports in the state were incomplete because autopsies were missing.

Dannhauser and his allies want the public to believe ACS has achieved a win-win: fewer child fatalities and fewer children in foster care. But the numbers they’ve released raise more questions than they answer.

Dannhauser is taking fire from all sides. The Bronx Defenders, for instance, recently issued a broadside accusing ACS of systemic bias. It would be convenient for his administration if doing less somehow led to major gains in child safety—but that doesn’t make it true. His defenders enthuse that “Quite frankly, as New Yorkers, we are lucky to have him!” They might try less cheerleading and more careful analysis.

Photo by Alexi Rosenfeld/Getty Images