Mail-in voting returns in New Jersey’s 2025 governor’s race are trending nine points more Republican than at the same point in 2024, reflecting a notable shift as Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill continue their closely contested battle for the governorship.
On Friday, September 26, updated mail-in ballot data showed Republicans making gains in New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial election. According to analyst Michael Pruser, Republican returns are up nine points compared to the same stage of the 2024 cycle. Democrats currently account for 63.8 percent of ballots cast, down 4.8 points from last year, while Republicans are at 23.6 percent, up 4.6 points, and other parties hold 12.6 percent. The figures mark a 3.5-point Republican improvement from 2021 levels.
The data comes as Ciattarelli, endorsed by President Donald Trump, seeks to build on his narrow 2021 loss to Gov. Phil Murphy. Recent polling underscores the competitive nature of the race. An Emerson College survey conducted September 22–23 found Ciattarelli and Sherrill tied at 43 percent, with 11 percent undecided. Earlier in June, a National Research Inc. poll placed Sherrill ahead by three points, 45 to 42 percent, with voter dissatisfaction over the state’s direction playing a significant role.
The campaign has seen contentious exchanges on the debate stage. Earlier this week, Ciattarelli pledged not to raise the sales tax and emphasized lowering income and property taxes, while accusing Sherrill of failing to disclose stock trades during her time in Congress. Citing reports from the New York Times and Business Insider, he alleged Sherrill violated disclosure rules regarding defense and technology stocks. Sherrill defended her record, stressing fiscal responsibility and promising to “drive down your cost at every level.”
Sherrill has also faced renewed attention over her past at the U.S. Naval Academy. A report obtained by the New Jersey Globe noted she was not permitted to walk at her 1994 graduation after failing to turn in classmates involved in a 1992 cheating scandal. Sherrill acknowledged the punishment but pointed out she still graduated, was commissioned, and served nearly a decade in the Navy. Ciattarelli argued she concealed her involvement from voters, while Sherrill dismissed the focus on the incident as an effort to smear her military service.
