As tensions run high, the question remains whether NATO would shoot down a Russian aircraft that violates one of the alliance members’ airspace.
On Friday, NATO aircraft intercepted three Russian Aerospace Force’s Mikoyan MiG-31 (NATO reporting name “Foxhound”) fighter jets after they entered Estonian airspace. The Russian supersonic interceptor aircraft remains one of the fastest known operational combat aircraft in service today.
The three planes had entered Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland and remained there for roughly 12 minutes. The Estonian Foreign Ministry has summoned Russia’s chargé d’affaires over the incident, labeling the incident a “dangerous provocation.”
“Russia has already violated Estonia’s airspace four times this year, which in itself is unacceptable. But today’s incursion, involving three fighter aircraft entering our airspace, is unprecedentedly brazen,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said in a statement to the media.
“Russia’s increasingly extensive testing of boundaries and growing aggressiveness must be met with a swift increase in political and economic pressure,” Tsahkna added.
Poland had announced on Thursday that Russian drones had attempted to violate its airspace from Belarus, where Moscow and Minsk have been carrying out the large-scale Zapad 2025 joint war games.
Russia Has a Habit of Violating NATO Airspace
These latest incidents come two weeks after a group of Russian drones flew into Polish airspace, leading NATO to shoot them down—the first kinetic action by NATO troops against Russia since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Only days after the Polish incident, additional drones violated Romanian airspace. NATO aircraft, including those from the Netherlands and Hungary that were part of the air policing mission to Eastern Europe, shot down multiple drones.
The Kremlin was quick to deny that it was behind the drone incursions, instead blaming Ukraine and calling the incidents “false flag operations.” Other Russian officials claimed instead that the drone flights were unintentional, and that Moscow had no intention of violating the airspace of the two NATO nations.
Western officials haven’t been convinced, and there has been speculation that the drone flights were deliberate in nature and meant to test NATO’s defenses, test the alliance’s resolve, and possibly even to escalate tensions.
Russia’s Border With Estonia Remains Closed
It is unclear if the incursion into Estonian airspace had anything to do with the announcement from Tallinn that it would not reopen the main border crossing with Russia to vehicles until the war in Ukraine is resolved.
“The Narva-Ivangorod crossing, the busiest along the 294-kilometer (183 miles) border, has been closed to road traffic since February 2024 for construction, though pedestrians have still been allowed through,” The Moscow Times reported. It is one of only three functioning checkpoints between Estonia and Russia.
In August, Estonia deployed new metal gates and additional barriers at the Narva crossing, while earlier this month, Lithuania began to fortify its frontier with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad with the installation of “dragon’s teeth” anti-tank defenses.
What Would Happen If NATO Shot Down a Russian Plane?
As tensions run high, the question remains whether NATO would shoot down a Russian aircraft that violates one of the alliance members’ airspace.
One possible answer was made clear nearly a decade ago. On November 24, 2015, a Turkish Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon shot down a Russian Aerospace Force’s Sukhoi Su-24M (NATO reporting name “Fencer”) tactical bomber near the Syria-Turkish border. Ankara stated that the aircraft was fired upon after violating the border for just 17 seconds after being warned to change its heading.
Moscow disputed the claims, stating the Su-24M was within 1,000 meters of Syrian airspace when it was shot down.
That incident marked the first downing of a Russian/Soviet aircraft by a NATO member since the Korean War, though it ultimately did not lead to conflict. A decade later, it is unclear if this outcome would stay the same.
About the Author: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu has contributed over 3,200 published pieces to more than four dozen magazines and websites over a 30-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a contributing writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].
Image: Shutterstock / Free Wind 2014.
