Until the tensions between Ottawa and Washington—and between Ottawa and Alberta—are resolved, the Americans should refuse to sell the F-35 to Canada.
Earlier this week, Canada elected economist and former central banker Mark Carney to a full term as its Prime Minister. During his campaign, Carney portrayed himself as an “anti-Trump” political figure whose experience in finance and international affairs uniquely qualified him to take on the forty-seventh president. Of course, in the view of Trump’s supporters in America—and in Canada—the new prime minister is the poster boy for the globalist elite.
Carney has modestly avoided thanking Trump for his election win, but neither he nor his opponents have any illusions about how he came to power. Canada’s ruling Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau was historically unpopular at the end of 2024, and the challenging Conservative Party was on track to win a landslide majority in the country’s parliament. However, after Trump began his attacks on the notion of Canadian sovereignty—claiming that Canada relied too much on U.S. trade and, therefore, should just become the 51st state—Canadians rallied around the incumbents. After Trudeau stepped down, Carney was able to skirt his predecessor’s personal unpopularity, and came out on top.
Whatever one thinks of Carney, it is indisputable that the effect of his win is that U.S.-Canada relations will remain at their worst point in decades. In his victory speech, Carney offered no olive branch to the United States. Instead, he vowed that his “united Canada” would “stand up” to the Trump administration—and that the days of amicable relations with Washington were over.
A Sovereignty Fight Over Alberta Is Coming Inside Canada
Of course, these are brave words for the leader of a country that is overwhelmingly dependent on trade with the United States. And Carney’s “united Canada” is far from united. Huge numbers of conservative Albertans, along with some in neighboring Saskatchewan, are already angry at the incoming Carney government. There is open talk among the province’s leaders about leaving Canada altogether.
Alberta, the most productive province of Canada, is understandably upset that the federal government in Ottawa disproportionately taxes and regulates Alberta’s vital oil and gas industry. The province’s residents credibly believe that Carney will be as vindictive toward them as was Trudeau—except, with the tensions between Ottawa and Washington being what they are, Carney will likely be even worse toward the Trump-sympathetic provincial government of Alberta.
Canada’s union is hanging by a thread. The chances that Edmonton might attempt to separate from the Canadian confederation are higher than ever before. Should that occur, there’s no telling how Ottawa will react.
The only upside for Alberta is that Canada’s military is decrepit. For years, the country has neglected its military, relying instead on the generosity of American security guarantees. The only problem for the Canadians is that the Americans are now demanding that Canada pay the piper. Should Alberta or any of the other outlying provinces choose to challenge the dominance of Ottawa by seceding from Canada or even joining the United States, would the central government really be able to stop them?
Why Is Trump Really Deploying F-15EX Eagle IIs to Michigan?
It would seem that the Pentagon is thinking about this question. This might explain why they chose to deploy 21 F-15EX Eagle IIs to Selfridge Air Base in Michigan to replace the outgoing A-10 Thunderbolt IIs (better known as “Warthogs”). Why would Trump willingly throw a lifeline to Michigan’s liberal governor, Gretchen Whitmer, who is often highlighted in the press as a possible Democratic contender for the 2028 presidential election?
By expanding America’s military footprint in Michigan, Trump is helping Whitmer keep many of her constituents employed during an important election. But there’s more to it. Washington must be sensing the growing instability in its northern neighbor.
Regardless of whether anything comes of a rift between Alberta and Carney’s federal government in Ottawa, the tensions are real, and Trump’s tariffs are only exacerbating the domestic spat. Having new F-15EX Eagle IIs right across the border could be a form of deterrence—and potentially even leverage—for Trump.
Trump Shouldn’t Sell F-35s to Canada Right Now
That’s why the threats coming from Prime Minister Carney’s camp about canceling their contract with Lockheed Martin to acquire a tranche of F-35 Lightning II fifth-generation warplanes should be welcome news to America.
Because of Canada’s refusal to maintain an adequate fighting force over the last 30 years, the country is made to rely upon outdated CF-18 fourth-generation warplanes. Ottawa wanted to upgrade to the F-35—both to enhance their military and their interoperability with NATO. But now that Trump’s trade war has commenced, Ottawa thinks declining to purchase the F-35 is somehow harmful to the U.S.
Not really. In fact, with the situation in Canada deteriorating, and its western regions on the cusp of secession, Washington benefits little from selling Canada the planes they could use to intimidate the people of Alberta.
Until the tensions between Ottawa and Washington—and between Ottawa and Edmonton—are resolved, the Americans should refuse to sell the F-35 to Canada. It’s too much of a threat in the hands of a Carney government that is essentially saying it is in an undeclared war with the United States.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Harrison Ha.
