After losing access to the F-35, Turkey still required a fifth-generation warplane capability. So it built its own—and now its plane is outcompeting the F-35 in international markets.
Indonesia is rapidly becoming one of the most important countries in the Indo-Pacific, as the United States and People’s Republic of China (PRC) continuously square off against each other for dominance in this region (and the world). Indonesia is the fourth most populous nation in the world, with a population of around 218 million; it is also the largest Muslim nation in the world, and highly influential in Islamic world affairs.
The Geopolitical Context of Indonesia
What’s more, Indonesia is the biggest economy in Southeast Asia, making it the most important nation of all the Southeast Asian states that both Washington and Beijing are vying to win over. Like many medium-sized, regional powers in a multipolar geopolitical environment, the Indonesian government is attempting to wage a neutral foreign policy, balancing China and America off each other to maximize its own opportunities.
One of the most important economic arenas for geopolitical competition is in arms manufacturing and exports. Indonesia is undergoing a massive military modernization campaign. Because of its geography, Jakarta is rightly fixating on enhancing its naval and air capabilities.
Going into this decade, Indonesia was a small player in the great geopolitical game. Halfway through the 2020s, however, the competition for influence—and dominance—over this country has led to some interesting developments. For example, it was assumed that Indonesia would be purchasing French-made Dassault Rafale warplanes to augment its older fleet of fighter jets.
However, following the embarrassing showing of Dassault’s jets in the recent India-Pakistan war, Jakarta has initiated a serious review of the planned purchase of the expensive warplanes.
it is now interested in the Chinese-made J-10C “Vigorous Dragon,” a fourth-generation warplane that the Pakistani Air Force (PAF) used in its air war against India last month with excellent results.
In short, the Indonesians are reassessing their commitment to costlier Western systems. And just when it couldn’t get any worse for the Western arms manufacturers, it looks like a new player has entered the Indonesian market: Turkey.
Turkey and Indonesia Already Do Good Business
Reports from earlier this month indicate that Indonesia has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Turkey to procure 48 fifth-generation KAAN warplanes from Ankara. TUSAŞ, the Turkish defense firm producing the KAAN warplane, will also transfer a considerable amount of advanced technology needed to support the 48 KAAN warplanes as part of the deal with Jakarta. Deliveries are planned for the 2030s and will end up costing Indonesia somewhere between $12 and $15 billion.
The KAAN deal is an astonishing turn—not only because it represents not only a radical leap forward in the air capabilities of Indonesia, but also because it shows how far Western defense firms have fallen. Unable to mass produce any complex system—and no longer able to outcompete China, Russia, and now Turkey in aircraft design—the Western defense sector has stagnated, largely coasting on its stellar reputation in decades past.
Indonesia is a prime example of this fall. The Americans need closer relations with Jakarta to counteract what China is doing in the region. Thanks to America’s bloated and costly defense contractors, though, the F-35 is deemed to be expensive and too technically complex to maintain for developing, medium-sized nations like Indonesia. Alternative programs, like Turkey’s KAAN warplane, fill the gap.
The KAAN, in fact, was the outgrowth of a series of short-sighted decisions by the United States beginning under President Barack Obama. During a period of relative decline in US-Turkish relations that lasted into Trump’s first term as president, Washington cut Turkey out of the F-35 Lightning II development program following its acquisition of Russian S-400 air defense systems over American ones. Thanks to Turkish ingenuity, Ankara took the humiliation of being iced out of the F-35 program and used it as an excuse to indigenize its military development.
Turkey Shows What a Defense Sector Should Look Like
As a result, today, Turkey has crafted a truly impressive indigenous defense production capacity that is churning warships and warplanes at a rate that the rest of NATO could only dream of. Ankara, as a resurgent great regional power, will not allow itself to be bullied by what it views as Western aggression. Instead, it will go—and has gone—its own way.
After losing access to the F-35, Turkey still required a fifth-generation warplane capability. So it built its own. Now, it is competing against America, Russia, and China for prominence in the global export market. Thanks to Indonesia, Turkey has its first major win. Arms exports of the kind that the KAAN deal between Turkey and Indonesia represent are long-term and fundamentally shift the balance of power in the region. Turkey now has real access to—and influence over—the beating heart of Southeast Asia, largely at the expense of the Europeans and the Americans.
And Turkey has much better relations with China than most Western analysts want to admit. Meanwhile, its relationship with Europe and America is one of enmity beneath an observably cooperative surface. The West had better get its house in order quickly. Doing business as usual may enrich defense contractors, but it does little to further the national interest.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Gani_Prastowo.
