With France’s withdrawal from the inter-European FCAS sixth-gen fighter jet initiative appearing more and more likely, it is unclear how the program will survive.
Germany and France have a long and at times quite contentious relationship that dates back centuries. Yet, today the two nations are close allies, but even allies can’t (or shouldn’t even try) to work together. That is certainly the case with the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), a €100 billion fighter jet program that now appears to be in freefall.
Last week, Guillaume Faury, CEO of Airbus, even said that the French-based Dassault Aviation was “free to leave” the program if it was dissatisfied with its current direction.
Is There a Future for FCAS Without France?
The Future Combat Air System may not have a future—at least not with the involvement of both Dassault and Airbus. The program has faced delays due to various partners haggling over technology sharing, labor distribution, technical specifications of the sixth-generation fighter, and even the ongoing political turmoil in Paris. The ongoing tensions have resulted in delays to the program moving to its second phase.
One issue has been that Dassault Aviation was to have 51 percent of the project’s workload. Still, according to German sources, the French firm has sought to increase this to 80 percent—meaning that the plane would fundamentally be a Dassault-produced aircraft with input from Airbus, Spain’s Indra, and ITP Aero.
The scenario now unfolding is similar to that of the Eurofighter Typhoon in the 1980s. The aircraft was devised as a collaborative effort—the European Fighter Aircraft (EFA)—between West Germany, Italy, the UK, and France to provide the four NATO members with a new aircraft that would be superior in all respects to the latest generation of Soviet fighters.
However, France withdrew from the program when Paris opted to pursue its own initiative—resulting in the development of the Dassault Rafale, while the other parties ultimately completed the Eurofighter Typhoon.
Italy and the UK appear to have read the tea leaves on the FCAS’ future troubles, as those countries and their respective companies are now part of the competing Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), which grew out of the Tempest program led by BAE Systems, merging with Japan’s F-X fighter effort. In typical European bureaucratic fashion, the GCAP program was also initially known as the Future Combat Air System.
Other European Nations Could Fill in for France
There has been speculation that FCAS could merge with GCAP, or that Germany would join the British-led program, with Spain following suit.
This week, Robert Wall and Jens Flottau of Aviation Week also suggested that if France does ultimately leave FCAS, Poland and Sweden could be poised to join to make up the shortfall. That would offer an interesting twist, as Sweden had been involved with the Tempest effort, and Saab is now working with the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (Försvarets Materielverk or FMV) on the Concept Program Future Air Combat System (Konceptet Framtidens Stridsflyg, or KFS).
Saab and GKN have spent the last 19 months conducting studies on the required technologies, developing the aircraft’s future capabilities, and preparing for future flight demonstrators as part of the Phase 1 efforts.
Stockholm had left the UK-led GCAP in 2022, just before it had applied to join NATO, but given the costs involved, it may seek a partner or partners.
Poland first floated its interest in joining the FCAS project in August. Warsaw has steadily sought to modernize its F-16 Fighting Falcon fleet and has adopted the F-35 Lightning II; however, it may seek to have more domestic input into its future aircraft.
Franco-German Defense Cooperation Is Not Totally Dead
Even as France and Germany may not remain committed to the FCAS program, the two NATO allies are still focused on developing a space-based missile warning system by 2030.
In addition, the two nations continue development of the Main Ground Combat System (MGCS), the eventual replacement of the Leopard 2 and Leclerc main battle tanks (MBTs) by the 2040s. Germany and France are seeking to share the costs, and could soon have a third partner, as Belgium has also expressed interest in joining the effort.
About the Author: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu has contributed over 3,200 published pieces to more than four dozen magazines and websites over a 30-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a contributing writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].
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