France’s withdrawal or ejection from the FCAS program could be history repeating itself, as France had been part of the Eurofighter Typhoon program before creating the competing Dassault Rafale.
France and Germany may be modern allies, but Paris and Berlin still can’t always see eye-to-eye on certain military matters. That has put the future of the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) into question, as tensions over the €100 billion ($117 billion) sixth-generation fighter program have reached “a danger point,” Politico EU reported on Thursday.
The joint French-German-Spanish program has experienced no shortage of turbulence since its initiation in 2017. There are now reports that Germany is set to eject France, possibly replacing its erstwhile partner with Sweden or even the United Kingdom. The alternative option is for Berlin to “go it alone,” or continue the partnership with Madrid. However, the latter option appears to offer little in return, given that the Spanish government has refused to meet NATO’s call to spend 5 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defense. Madrid’s failure to commit to that level raises questions about whether it will be able to contribute according to FCAS.
However, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has called for the program to respect the work-sharing deal between the three partners, which signals support for Germany over France.
“Spain’s interest in this project is genuine, it is total, it is absolute, but of course on the conditions that had been agreed in advance by the three countries: Germany, France, and Spain,” said Sánchez at a press conference with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Thursday evening, Euractiv reported.
The Future of the FCAS Fighter Jet Seems in Doubt
FCAS is being developed to replace France’s Dassault Rafale and the Eurofighter Typhoon by 2040. Dassault Aviation, France’s largest aerospace firm and the prime contractor for FCAS, has sought to maintain the leading role in the program. This has resulted in no shortage of pushback from Germany’s aerospace industry, including Airbus, which has been collaborating with Dassault on the development of the manned fighter, as well as on the accompanying drones. Spain’s Indra defense contractor has accepted a secondary position, taking the lead on the eventual aircraft’s sensors and network systems.
It was over the summer that German media reported Dassault was pushing for an 80 percent share of the work on the larger Next-Generation Weapon System (NGWS), of which the FCAS is one system among multiple systems, including the next-generation fighter jet (NGF). French officials have disputed the claim that Dassault was angling for 80 percent of the workload, even as the company has called for a greater role in the decision-making process.
France Has Been in the Ejection Seat Before
France’s withdrawal from or ejection from the FCAS program could be a way of history repeating itself, as France had been part of the Eurofighter Typhoon program but withdrew in the mid-1980s due to disagreements over design requirements and work-sharing. Instead, Paris pursued its own aircraft design, which ultimately led to the Rafale.
The UK and Italy were partners on the Eurofighter, and both nations—along with Japan—are now part of the competing Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), which also seeks to develop an optionally manned sixth-generation fighter supported by unmanned aerial systems (UAS).
French and German officials met in July to begin addressing the issues, with plans to determine by the end of the year whether FCAS can proceed to Phase 2, which would involve starting work on a demonstrator aircraft.
Could the UK or Sweden Replace France in the FCAS Program?
As the UK continues to make progress with the GCAP program, it seems unlikely that London could find a way to work on the FCAS, the GCAP’s main rival. The British BAE Systems is the lead contractor on the GCAP, which evolved from the company’s Tempest program.
“How it would be possible for BAE to work on two competing projects without a conflict of interest is unclear,” Politico EU explained.
However, as the report noted, Sweden had been part of the GCAP and could pivot to the FCAS. Saab has seen success with its JAS 39 Gripen, and “has long-standing expertise in avionics, sensors, and lightweight airframes.” Politico EU also noted that Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson would be in Berlin next week, raising the possibility of in-person talks.
During the meeting, Stockholm may likely explore the option of joining the program, should France officially withdraw. A meeting of officials from the program’s current partners, including industry representatives, government officials, and various agencies, is scheduled to take place next month. It may be at that point when it is determined whether FCAS and the NGWS will proceed, or if Germany will seek an alternative path.
About the Author: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu has contributed over 3,200 published pieces to more than four dozen magazines and websites over a 30-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a contributing writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].
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