Peace talks to end the Russia-Ukraine war are gaining new momentum. But how serious is the Kremlin?
As the war in Ukraine grinds into its fourth year, diplomatic activity around a possible settlement is quietly intensifying. Skepticism remains widespread in Washington and European capitals. In the latest episode of the Three Questions podcast, Paul Saunders speaks with Andrew Kuchins, a veteran Russia analyst, about whether recent US-led outreach could finally open a path toward ending the conflict, and what such an outcome would mean for Europe, Russia, and the United States.
Saunders frames the moment cautiously, hesitating to describe the effort underway as a formal negotiating process. Kuchins still argues that recent developments look “more promising” than in prior years. Among the most striking signals, he says, is the Kremlin’s decision to devote serious time and attention to the talks. “Vladimir Putin spent five hours in this meeting,” Kuchins notes. “He’s a busy guy. And for him to allocate so much time for this suggests that he is looking at this very seriously.”
One factor reshaping perceptions on both sides is the involvement of Jared Kushner. Ukrainians, Kuchins says, “don’t see Kushner as being as pro-Russian as Steve Witkoff appears to be in his remarks,” while even Russian state media highlights his participation. The Kremlin, he adds, has publicly referenced Kushner’s role in the Abraham Accords, an unusual acknowledgment of US diplomatic credibility.
Still, the obstacles remain formidable. Kuchins identifies three unresolved issues that will define any settlement: territorial concessions, security guarantees, and the fate of frozen Russian central bank assets held in Europe. On the latter, Ukraine faces a looming fiscal crisis, with projected deficits of $45 to $50 billion annually. Europe is reluctant to absorb these costs indefinitely.
Kuchins pushes back against what he calls Europe’s growing “war hysteria,” arguing that Moscow has paid an extraordinary price for limited gains. “They have taken over a million casualties for, frankly, not that much real estate,” he says. The conflict will soon last longer than the Soviet Union’s war against Nazi Germany.
Far from emerging stronger, Kuchins argues Russia is more isolated than at any point in its history, now overleveraged to China and cut off from decades of economic integration with the West. At a recent tech demonstration in Moscow, Russia’s first humanoid robot fell flat on its face. “I thought that was a great metaphor,” he says.
Listen now on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
About the Speakers:
Paul J. Saunders is president of the Center for the National Interest and a member of its board of directors. He is also the publisher of The National Interest. His expertise spans US foreign and security policy, energy security and climate change, US-Russia relations and Russian foreign policy, and US relations with Japan and South Korea. Saunders is a senior advisor at the Energy Innovation Reform Project, where he served as president from 2019 to 2024. He has been a member of EIRP’s board of directors since 2013 and served as chairman from 2014 to 2019. At EIRP, Saunders has focused on the collision between great power competition and the energy transition, including such issues as energy security, energy technology competition, and climate policy in a divided world. In this context, he has engaged deeply in energy and climate issues in the Indo-Pacific region, especially US relations with Japan and South Korea. His most recent project at EIRP is an assessment of Russia’s evolving role in the global energy system.
Andrew C. Kuchins is currently a senior fellow at the Center for the National Interest and an adjunct professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. He has served as President of the American University of Central Asia and the Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center as well as the Russia and Eurasia Programs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is the author or editor of 7 books and published columns for The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post, and many other media outlets.
Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin meets US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (Office of the President of the Russian Federation, via Wikimedia Commons)
